I too thought Fitbit was screwed when Apple announced its watch, but after seeing the prices and Apple's eye towards high-end consumers in this market, I wouldn't underestimate Fitbit as a business.

I have a surge that I was given. I also have some high end training devices I use on the bike, Polar, Suunto and Garmin. Fitbit doesn't compete with these, neither does apple watch (at least not yet.) The fitbit is easy to use, I do find myself looking at the numbers on and off during the day, maybe walking a bit more. I'm curious about the aria integration, that seems like another killer piece of the weight loss and basic fitness equation.

The geek in me would love to be able to pull my fitbit data in to Rubitrack or something else, at the same time, it's really not that kind of data. It seems like it adds data to all the places where I didn't keep it before, for good or bad. Not sure how that helps me out exactly (I put a couple hundred miles on a bike every week) but if you're trying to lose weight or just get started with some basic fitness, I could easily see it being really valuable. They have a social integration component, I might be too old or a different kind of bird but a badge for climbing flights of stairs doesn't do it for me like a top 10 in a bike race, the younger set seem to enjoy that stuff.

Seems like a really immature industry as a whole. And FWIW, Apple builds killer laptops but Dell and the others still make them too. Apple builds a great phone but there are still dozens of competitors in the market and some of them are very compelling. Apple Watch seems like a market maker more than a market killer. It is proof that the wrist watch is interesting again, I don't think they're going to put all the other watch makers out of business any time soon.

I don't know. We have a weight problem as a country, anything that helps people get out and move more and gives them some motivation and keeps them honest about it seems good to me. I wish them good luck.

Every company's trackers have some defect, though. Garmin's software totally sucks and it can't do HR tracking in the water. Suunto can do that but it's platform syncs with almost nothing. Polar, until recently, refused to use Ant+. Nike+ had a low barrier to entry, but then they figured out it would be impossible to compete with Suunto, Polar & Garmin so they pivoted to become just a platform. I read DC Rainmaker with avid interest, but as with things like cycling power meters there is way too much fragmentation in the activity monitor segment.

There's a market for fitness devices, sure, but the ceiling on it is now $349 (and likely dropping). Fitbit et al. won't capture high margins below that point long-term, and it's much more likely (IMO) they offer a commoditized hardware product with complimentary "insight" services (which is, itself, a perilous market). There isn't a lot of room for profit in such a market.

Just wait until developers have more time with Android Wear.

FitBit refusing to do this means my data isn't where I want it. It's within their app and I can't get it back.

And now I readily share my experience with friends and family who are usually quite surprised at how it holds your data hostage, and they're just as bothered as I am when I point out that the device is a one time purchase but the servers it reports back to require ongoing payments. All I have to do is point out that Fitbit has their health data, and that of millions of other people, and they have a need to make money.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out that your data is not safe with them.

It also took Fitbit over a quarter to launch Strava integration after announcing it, yet that feature is probably a couple days (max) of coding. The Mods in the discussion forms kept sandbagging, claiming the feature was extremely complex.

The initial step counter was a hit product with a specific niche. My impression is they've really struggled to keep up with growth and innovation in the field, and this IPO is very much an attempt at an exit of sorts.

I had to return my first fitbit scale because my firewall blocked the first outbound request that the scale made (it was a new unidentified device on the network), which caused the scale to brick itself.

If the first registration request fails it does not appear to retry. Taking out the batteries had no effect.

I was stunned they hadn't caught this in product testing. Not that the first request could get blocked by an anal firewall but that a sporadic internet connection doesn't cause the device to brick.

With that said, I've become less happy with their hardware over time. My One frequently resets its clock and thus miscounts steps; my Aria downgrades my network to 802.11b (but that might be fixed by getting a better router?).

Edit: to clarify when you go to fitbit's website and you go to the device's settings it shows you all of the measurements and lets you delete some. If it has been extracted to a fitbit account then it is "saved" (testing exporting my fitbit account it does have my old weights), but for example all of the measurements of our cat+me which did not have a fitbit account were auto deleted after some time period. I wonder if you don't log into your fitbit account in less than 90 days if you would also start losing your weight history or something similar :\ Either way deleting weight data on a product whos sole purpose is keeping track of data for you is sad.

edit: Clearer: Apps that work with other watch platforms are now in conflict with Apple's policy of not mentioning a competing platform, because now Apple has a watch platform. It makes sense from an Android-iOS sense, because the systems aren't compatible, so no real need to mention it. But if the entire purpose of your app is to connect an iPhone to a watch, your option is the App Store.

What will the developers put in the description? "This is an app that connects your iPhone to...well, Apple won't let us tell you! Check out our website to learn more about our app."

Apple should update their policies and implementation of such to specify this as "mobile phone platforms".

I see a similar pattern with FitBit. It's a 3-axis accelerometer with some firmware and software. Someone smarter than me could probably get something working in a weekend (though weekend prototype to production is admittedly a long road). Worse, plenty of things have accelerometers in them. My iPhone. Your Samsung phone. My Pebble watch, which uses the Misfit app to count steps and track sleep without requiring that I actually buy a Misfit device. Some garage outfit may not put Fitbit out of business, but larger device manufacturers might be just one software update away from doing so.

Fitbit will have to have some serious value-add to stave off competitors, I think. Maybe I'm wrong, probably am. But I won't be buying their stock.

[0] http://pogue.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/14/the-tragic-death-o...

In fact, you don't need to build one at all. AliBaba returns over 14k results for "fitness tracker", and I imagine many of them are exact FitBit clones.

However, consumer product businesses are about way more than just the product itself. Marketing matters. Distribution matters. Apple bought Beats not because they couldn't create headphones, but because they wanted the brand. FitBit is Beats for "3-axis accelerometers with some firmware and software that you wear around your wrist".

As it happens, while typing this comment, my watch let me know it was time to stand up and move around :-P

Battery life. Apple Watch will improve over time, but it's nowhere near there yet when it can't be worn overnight.

Personally I have no problems charging my watch daily, just like my phone. But it does present an issue if you want to wear it while sleeping. I've never wanted to wear a watch sleeping though...

As a complete side note, i've been impressed by the battery life. I haven't gone below 50% in a day yet, and I have so little concern that I will I took battery percentage off of my watch face.

fitbit's current product is v 0.5 of that future. all of their energy as a company can be put to improving health through their product line ..much different than the ingrained processes and motivations of cell phone makers.

edit : s/cellphone/wearable/ ..same comment applies.

The manufacturing process. I don't know much about this, but apparently beats can produce colour and shine in plastic of a very high quality in high volume.

It's a team that have manage to not only build a valuable brand, but create a whole new, high-end market segment. That kind of skill is definitely something Apple wants.

They also have a music service and Apple wants in on streaming and their other streaming acquisitions weren't good enough (or they had launched using them)

I'm no expert, but these are the value propositions of Beats that I've gathered as a regular on HN.

I don't understand what their next device or app is because I can't see them staying and competing for the exact reasons you said. Yet I even use their devices right now.

Curious what the future holds for them. I feel like they have to pivot or innovate and I haven't seen any hints of that yet. Then again I could be horribly wrong.

Another commenter put it much better than my original post with the PDA/flip phone analogy. I'm going to wear my Pebble anyway, why would I add a Fitbit to my wrist? Cell phones didn't put Canon and Nikon out of business, but they sure gutted their low end market. And I don't see a Fitbit as offering a fitness tracker that's equivalent to a DSLR. If they did, I'll guess it would start to look a lot like a Garmin or Suunto product. Good luck going up against those folks.

"That is, when you’re in a Wi-Fi hot spot, the entire world can see what you’re filming. You can post a link to Twitter or Facebook, or send an e-mail link to friends. Anyone who clicks the link can see what you’re seeing, in real time — thousands of people at once."

That's wow for me as this is almost exactly what Periscope is doing, which is popular around me right now. I had to check the date of article, 2011. Wow. 4 years earlier is a lot :)

Maybe they've got something else going other then being a 3-axis accelerometer.

Revenue in millions [2011,2014[: 14.5, 76.4, 271.1, 745.4

Paid active users in millions [2011,2014]: NULL, 0.6, 2.6, 6.7

I realize they sell more than just pedometers, but their core product is a 3-axis accelerometer that calculates a dubious step count w/o really actionable insights. Imagine what this can be once there start to be useful applications/more of the data.

The effectiveness of the FitBit, just by my anecdote, is that it tracks all your steps, even for little things such as walking to the bathroom, and shows you your total activity. Second, is when at the end of the day your are close to your target, its easy to convince yourself to go for a little walk to reach the target. Without tracking, you wouldn't have done that extra walk at night.

I do agree with sentiments of others that the lock-in of data is pretty annoying, but the device and app work great for what they do.

Having an external locus of control can make a huge difference for some people when it comes to exercising more or eating better. It helped for me.

> ...but the device and app work great for what they do.

That was NOT my experience with the app. I think it's pathetic they decided to try to be their own ecosystem instead of being part of HealthKit, but that's not their big sin.

In the two or so years I used a Fitbit the app only got worse. Food logging was repeatedly changed, losing features, and getting harder and harder to use. They later changed exercise entry to make it work better for runners and harder for everything else. They took FOREVER to update from iOS 6 style interfaces to iOS 7.

But the big thing, the KILLER thing, was that all my data was corrupted by a bug they knew about and refused to fix. There was an option to adjust your daily calorie goals based on activity (or something like that). Having that on used to be the default, but it caused all sorts of problems. I only found that out after noticing tons of my old data had almost exactly the same calorie count each day. Like within 10 calories.

After numerous support emails (their support system was terrible) I was finally told to turn that option off. They knew it caused issues, that's why they started turning it off by default. But they didn't tell people who had it on about the issues it caused or detect if they were hitting the bug. They fixed it for new users and left older users screwed.

So I have 2+ years of useless fitness data in FitBit. It doesn't matter if it can be exported for free or put in HealthKit, the data is junk.

I don't remember having a single positive interaction with FitBit over support or other problems. They were at best neutral. My opinion of them went lower and lower and lower over time.

Why? Considering their platform existed before HealthKit and the current limitations of Healthkit... it sounds like a smart move to me.

Why not get the Apple Watch instead, and enjoy all of the other features you can have too? I think the comparison in a comment above to camera/video camera is spot on. It's a great feature for this other all purpose computing device I happen to have. I don't expect it will be a standalone product 5 years from now in any significant numbers.

Your use of the word "effectiveness" implies you desired a particular result having used your FitBit. So, what precisely is your desired result? That you do your extra walk?

Case MA, Burwick HA, Volpp KG, Patel MS. Accuracy of Smartphone Applications and Wearable Devices for Tracking Physical Activity Data. JAMA. 2015;313(6):625-626. doi:10.1001/jama.2014.17841. http://jama.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?articleid=2108876

Fitbit is definitely useful for monitoring activity if your goal is to manage calories in/calories out and keep track of your heatlh.

But I'd be interested to know how they plan to leverage the data as watches and phones cut off their hardware sales. They could go more pro with sport-specific solutions, or the data could inform a next-generation leap in UI.

For FitBit the lack of subscription revenue (1% of total), the litigation following product recalls, and the uncertainty from complying with FDA regulations seem particularly noteworthy.

Fitbit's current flagship activity tracker (the Surge) includes a pedometer, but it isn't just a pedometer. It has a fair array of functions, including non-pedometer fitness functions like the heart rate monitor -- it doesn't support third-party functionality like Apple Watch or Android Wear, and it doesn't have a color screen, OTOH, it can be used with Apple or Android devices (and Windows Phone, I think) -- or with neither, it can use a desktop or laptop to sync, as well -- and when used with a mobile device, it can support call and text notifications and control the synced device's music playback.

It also has its own GPS for doing exercise (run/bike) route tracking.

They're in a tough competitive spot, sure. But they've known for a while that the direction was toward broader functionality.

Does anyone have any insights there since I'm curious?

https://www.apple.com/watch/technology/

Ctrl-f 'Accelerometer'

I don't think it matters that refusing to integrate with Healthkit or rejecting data through their API matters. Check out the App Store. The Fitbit app is usually in the top 100 apps, let alone tops in the health category.

Some of you are bringing up the Apple Watch or products from Garmin and such, but again these are completely different. I recently got a Charge HR myself from fitbit and the requirements for me were some base functionality, acceptable battery life, and above all size and lightness. I've had the Charge HR for about 3 months and I hardly notice it except when I'm in competition with friends on the Fitbit app. I've had more than just a handful of friends also getting Fitbits because of the ecosystem.

I'm a believer, and barring a ridiculous price after the IPO, I'll likely be an investor.

2013 - 271M revenue, 51M loss.

2014 - 745M revenue, 131M profit.

Q1 2014 - 108M revenue, 8M profit.

Q1 2015 - 336M revenue, 47M profit.

These are fantastic numbers - I don't blame them deciding to go public now.

I found a bug triggered by hitting the "Pause" button during a run. Effectively the device paused on the display, but the underlying data they use to build maps, calculate pace, etc keeps calculating. So if you run for 10 minutes, pause for 10 when you unexpectedly meet a friend, then run for 10 minutes all of your stats are based on a 30-minute run which isn't what most runners are interested in.

I documented this in excruciating detail (including showing errors in their .TCX file exports) and sent it off to their helpdesk.

First response: "That is a carrier issue, but don't worry we are still counting your steps.". There was no acknowledgement of the content I'd sent or the attachments I'd included.

Second response: Insisted it was a carrier or GPS issue, and not a software bug.

Third response: They asked me to call their 800-number. After I declined due to being in Australia, they replied and insisted that the call would be free, because it's to an 800-number.

Fourth response: THey are "Blessed" I contacted them. No acknowledgement of understanding of my issue.

It seems clear that their customer service team are not familiar with day to day use cases of their products, particularly the high-end running watch. The free phone call stuff is amusing but hints at a team that aren't aware of who their customers are.

Again, I like my Surge watch and their software is pretty good. Integration to Strava is great. But there's a pretty good chance they'll be overtaken by a future Apple watch with GPS in it.

[Edited to be less snarky]

Their website was ugly and hard to use. Their apps too, and they banned specific phone models and countries from installing the app. Very vexing to be left out on purpose, after buying the damned thing.

Sleep tracking? I had to TELL it when I went to sleep and woke up (the magical five-times-tapping). So, basically, it's the same thing I could do with a notepad and a pen on the nightstand.

I use my phone to track my calories since.

I think you might have misunderstood the sleep tracking feature. It also tracks when you're awake or restless while you're sleeping so you can understand if you slept well or not.

Last time I checked, my notepad and pen didn't do that.

Can someone else make a similar device? Yes. Is there any reason someone has to use FitBit? No. Can someone else operate more efficiently? Probably. Does another company out there in the same space have better customer loyalty than FitBit? For sure.

This all spells major trouble for FitBit. Apple could easily achieve a much better economy of scale than FitBit and in the long run win a war of attrition. Even if Apple doesn't succeed in this space, the fact that the barriers to entry are low suggests that FitBit will never be wildly profitable. Any competitive advantage it currently has will not last.

I tried one on and the whole hw/software combination right now seems like a public beta. But it's showing they've got some really good ideas.

What I'd really like is a stress management feature from one of these sensor bands that can glean more info from my daily life. It seems like a perfect fit for MS to look at my Outlook calendar for the day and my heart rate and then point out to me a meeting that may have gotten heated.

Maybe if they played nice and opened their API / allowed devs to play with the damn thing, they could compete more with Apple, which does the same for its products.

From all the academic research I have seen regarding nutrition and exercise getting a few thousand extra steps will have no meaningful affect on your weight and health.

Is the pedometer really just a psychological trick to get people thinking about their weight and health more often which leads to people actually eating less?

Keep in mind that many people struggle to get even a few thousand steps. Beyond that, it's a great status symbol, or at least it was, until the Apple Watch came out :-)

Also, the data can be interesting, both for researchers, and for yourself--if you're the kind of person who wonders e.g. if getting a lot of steps late in the evening rather than in the morning affects your sleep...

They're fucked, erm, 'disrupted'.