China will likely launch missiles and attempt to destroy Japanese, maybe even Philippine bases to hamper US supply lines. USA will be forced to forward deploy multiple Carriers into the risk zone, and roughly ~2 Carriers are expected to be killed. China probably can weaken the US Navy enough to attempt a landing, but no such landing seems like it'd be successful. US, Taiwan, and China take major losses, but the island likely will remain in Taiwan's control.
> There aren't any US nuclear assets at stake in Ukraine. No flag ships or other sovereign symbols. No body count of US servicemen. That's not a strong analogy.
Funny how you ignore my point and rather focus on the side-comments.
Losing Taiwan is an extinction level event for multiple, major US Industries and service sectors. Period. USA is too economically tied to that island.
Bonus points: a lot of these technology sectors (ex: Servers / AMD EPYC, and AI with NVidia A100 chips) are essential to US strategic level initiatives, like our supercomputer projects, DoD cloud initiatives, and the like. Losing Taiwan would be a direct blow to US Military and weaken us in the decades to come.
Its not "just" an economic problem, it is also a military and strength problem.
You only wrote "latest wargames" whatever that is. I'm not wading through the dreck of the interweb to figure out what you had in mind based on that. Thanks for pointing out specifically what you had in mind.
While interesting, it is as I imagined; there is no political calculation involved here. When the time comes to weigh supply chain problems (even if severe) against going kinetic with China and risk losing carriers, destroyers, etc. I believe the US will decline. We're talking about nuclear fallout here. Recovering damaged warheads from the seabed on the other end of the planet. Respectfully, I just don't see it.
> Funny how you ignore my point and rather focus on the side-comments.
I don't think I deserve this. For my part I've been respectful of your comments and I appreciate your time.
> Losing Taiwan is an extinction level event for multiple, major US Industries and service sectors. Period.
As we've seen with COVID-19 the Western establishment is capable of causing great harm to private sector interests when, right or wrong, they've deemed it necessary. The US military hasn't been so irresponsible that it can't function without a continuous supply of 3nm GPUs. I'll grant you there will be great disruption, but it's neither fatal nor permanent.
> The US military hasn't been so irresponsible that it can't function without a continuous supply of 3nm GPUs. I'll grant you there will be great disruption, but it's neither fatal nor permanent.
You've grossly underestimated USA's military dependence on TSMC.
Case in point: swaths of the F35 Fighter is reliant upon TSMC semiconductors. Advanced FPGAs (AMD, previously known as Xilinx) are TSMC. That's the key to our RADAR systems. Not just F35 (and other electronic warfare platforms), but also our satellite / space systems.
I'm not talking GPUs here. I'm talking literally our military components are entirely dependent on that island.
On the one hand, TSMC isn't the only supplier. On the other hand, the other supplier is United Microelectronics Co, which is also based in Taiwan. So we have a problem here.
> The Lockheed Martin Aeronautics segment in Fort Worth, Texas will provide 83,169 field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) from Xilinx Inc. in San Jose, Calif., under terms of a $104.7 million contract modification.
> The communication, navigation, and identification friend or foe (IFF) avionics of the F-35 relies on Xilinx FPGAs, as do other critical electronic subsystems aboard the advanced jet. fighter-bomber. FPGAs enable Lockheed Martin to add new waveforms to embedded software radio systems in the F-35, as well as for real-time digital signal processing.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/09/politics/taiwan-invasion-war-...
China will likely launch missiles and attempt to destroy Japanese, maybe even Philippine bases to hamper US supply lines. USA will be forced to forward deploy multiple Carriers into the risk zone, and roughly ~2 Carriers are expected to be killed. China probably can weaken the US Navy enough to attempt a landing, but no such landing seems like it'd be successful. US, Taiwan, and China take major losses, but the island likely will remain in Taiwan's control.
> There aren't any US nuclear assets at stake in Ukraine. No flag ships or other sovereign symbols. No body count of US servicemen. That's not a strong analogy.
Funny how you ignore my point and rather focus on the side-comments.
Losing Taiwan is an extinction level event for multiple, major US Industries and service sectors. Period. USA is too economically tied to that island.
Bonus points: a lot of these technology sectors (ex: Servers / AMD EPYC, and AI with NVidia A100 chips) are essential to US strategic level initiatives, like our supercomputer projects, DoD cloud initiatives, and the like. Losing Taiwan would be a direct blow to US Military and weaken us in the decades to come.
Its not "just" an economic problem, it is also a military and strength problem.