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I like to think of Industrial Revolution for counterexamples. It wiped out tens or hundreds of professions. No more blacksmiths in every village.

Two things happened: one, blacksmithing effectively was taken over by a different skill, that of configuring, servicing and operating industrial machines. There were no junior or senior blacksmiths anymore, seniors probably migrated their knowledge, and the whole field was taken over by non-blacksmiths.

The other thing is that a small proportion remained. Initially perhaps for niche goods that were too difficult or uneconomical to automate. Now blacksmiths do exist, a bit like craft coffee blenders and horse trainers. But the industry was nonetheless wiped out.

Will we see that crafting software will become a job for people trained in AI whispering? Perhaps they will never, or hardly ever, write any code, but will train extensively in software design. Much as a metallurgy engineer might know all crystalline forms of steel but have never swung a hammer.

Day 1 these jobs would likely get filled by senior devs, but there may be no new devs, junior or senior, except for niche applications.



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