One thing about GPT is that it only knows what we know at the moment. That indicates to me that it won’t be great for learning new technologies until humans generate content it can regurgitate. That alone might give juniors an edge against it (assuming they are gradually replaced by a robot pooping out dumb logic) - they might be able to specialize in learning what models don’t yet know, or what they can’t be good at.
Just guessing here. I’d love to hear a rebuttal to get a sense of where people think things are going.
Though I don’t think GPT is “there” yet, I can see it getting there by 2030. I think it’s seriously worth considering: how will people learn to program in 10 years, how will they remain relevant through periods of their career where an AI can generate better solutions than they can, and how will more experienced engineers adapt to those changes?
I like to think of Industrial Revolution for counterexamples. It wiped out tens or hundreds of professions. No more blacksmiths in every village.
Two things happened: one, blacksmithing effectively was taken over by a different skill, that of configuring, servicing and operating industrial machines. There were no junior or senior blacksmiths anymore, seniors probably migrated their knowledge, and the whole field was taken over by non-blacksmiths.
The other thing is that a small proportion remained. Initially perhaps for niche goods that were too difficult or uneconomical to automate. Now blacksmiths do exist, a bit like craft coffee blenders and horse trainers. But the industry was nonetheless wiped out.
Will we see that crafting software will become a job for people trained in AI whispering? Perhaps they will never, or hardly ever, write any code, but will train extensively in software design. Much as a metallurgy engineer might know all crystalline forms of steel but have never swung a hammer.
Day 1 these jobs would likely get filled by senior devs, but there may be no new devs, junior or senior, except for niche applications.
I guess they won't, in the same way we are much worse at remembering information in the era of search engines. They will be profient in telling the AI the exact words it needs to produce the correct code output. No one will be good in programming trivial code snippets not because every snippet is on SO but because every code part can be generated with the correct request.
As many of us cannot read machine code and hex anymore many of the juniors won't be able to parse the code output - but it may not matter anymore.
One thing about GPT is that it only knows what we know at the moment. That indicates to me that it won’t be great for learning new technologies until humans generate content it can regurgitate. That alone might give juniors an edge against it (assuming they are gradually replaced by a robot pooping out dumb logic) - they might be able to specialize in learning what models don’t yet know, or what they can’t be good at.
Just guessing here. I’d love to hear a rebuttal to get a sense of where people think things are going.
Though I don’t think GPT is “there” yet, I can see it getting there by 2030. I think it’s seriously worth considering: how will people learn to program in 10 years, how will they remain relevant through periods of their career where an AI can generate better solutions than they can, and how will more experienced engineers adapt to those changes?