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> For your typical solo founder in their 30s, their odds of dying at any point over the next 10 years is something like 0.2%

The real figure is more 2.1% (source: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html)


I don't like these numbers. I preferred the old numbers.


Fair, I was just going by the risk of fatal cardiovascular events: https://www.cvriskcalculator.com/

I feel like the indie hacking lifestyle doesn't really attract people who are at high risk for most other common causes of death at that age, in the same way that, say, raising venture capital seems to be an attractive option for people already at risk of suicide or drug overdose.


I'm confused, where does the 2.1% come from. It does look like 0.001795 which is 0.2% for a 30 year old in the source you linked


.001795 for year 30 = .998205 survival this year

.001858 for year 31 = .998142

...

.002482 for year 39 = .997518

---------------------

.998205 x .998142 x ... x .997518 = .978997 survival rate over 10 years

1 - .978997 = .021003 chance of death = 2.1%


The number you read is for dying within the next year. The OP said within a decade.


OP also said "in their 30s" not "at 30". So I'd use 35-45 rather than 30-40, which shifts it a bit.


Since I already have the spreadsheet built for my other comment:

30-39 is 2.1%

35-44 is 2.5%

40-49 is 3.3%

---------

30-49 is 5.3%

Ranges are inclusive of entire year. 30-39 is 30th bday to 40th bday


Which is about the same rate that airlines lose luggage. (Unrelated comparison but analogies can help)


I've experienced an airline losing my luggage, but I haven't experienced death yet.

Maybe I'm immortal :)


Literal survivorship bias :-D


Maybe you've flewn more times than you lived from 30-40


That's a fairly deceptive analogy though. Many people check baggage a lot more (or less) than once per year.


That’s exactly the opposite of why it’s an unrelated analogy (which was stated). People live days of their lives far more often than they check baggage. Death is not a once per year risk. The risk of losing luggage per day or per hour of traveling is much higher than the risk of dying per hour/day of living.


>Death is not a once per year risk.

It absolutely is in the context of a discussion of annualized mortality rates.


My point was a response to the statement that baggage checking happens more than once per year. Life also happens more than once per year, and in fact it happens more often than checking baggage, right?

It’s misleading to annualize these stats because the participation rates per hour and per day are very very different. This is why sports risk is usually calculated in participation hours and not annualized, to prevent such misleading comparisons.


You are comparing it with the risk of dying in an year. That is a once per year risk.


It’s not a once per year risk, it’s an average. And you agree that changing the choice of time window for averaging will dramatically change the results, don’t you?


I guess most entrepreneurs are not dying from drugs or guns as they are simply too busy!


Unintentional injury (likely mostly car crashes?) seems to be the leading cause for all age group up to age 44. Then come suicide/homicide which only start declining in the ranks in your 40s, probably because other causes (cancer, heart conditions) start to take over.

I'm in my 40s and officially more likely to have my heart kill me, than myself.

https://wisqars.cdc.gov/fatal-leading


> Any application that could be done on a blockchain could be better done on a centralized database. Except crime.

In a weird way, this quote is a good explanation of why cryptos exist: they give the possibility of creating systems evading state controls.

Crime is a relative thing: moving money outside of certain countries is prohibited, in others it's owning property for certain category of people.


The definition of crime is not only a relative thing, but also a moving target which is quite unpredictable and has a lot of long tail events.


yes, you can email it to your miner buddy.

it's possible to spot such transactions if they violate transaction forwarding rules (aka standardness rules) but not consensus rules. for example, a transaction greater than 100kB is not standard but still valid.


I've build a tool to detect differences between _my local_ mempool and what miners include in their block (there will always be slight differences). This is primarily intended to detect censorship, but can also detect transactions that never entered _my_ mempool.

See https://miningpool.observer


Brilliant! I remember thinking about this problem a few years back: what stops miners of a blockchain just ignoring transactions/anything from certain entities. So it's good that there exists a way to track such behaviour, if it is occurring.


Economics. If miners consistently ignore certain transactions, there is space for new miners to enter the market and earn super-normal profit. After the next difficulty adjustment cycle, the old, censoring miners may be priced out.


This is really neat. Have you thought about trying to bundle it as an app that can be downloaded on umbrel?


Yes! Will be on umbrel eventually. Currently needs a Bitcoin Core build from the master branch. The features use should be in the upcoming release. Then Umbrel!


Looking forward to it!


Yeah but wouldn’t it require some kind of fork of the BTC software (not chain) to actually include this transaction without sending it to everyone else?


The transaction is valid to all miners, it just isn't shared with the network until your buddy finds a block that includes it.


Law enforcement watches the mempool, they can spot such transactions anyway because they know it didn't ever show up in their mempool logs.


Ok but is it really illegal? I doubt there’s a law on who can send who private BTC transactions? Or is it actually possible to mark this as laundering?


There's nothing illegal here. The goal of privacy is to avoid giving anyone a reason to suspect something. In the case of money laundering specifically, you want to turn money that looks extremely suspicious into money that doesn't look suspicious at all.

Little tiny 'gotchas' aren't going to save you from a determined investigator. They are trying to follow a trail of evidence so they can produce more evidence. What you need is a clean break, so that the investigator hits a dead end and has no productive leads they can follow.


There will always be discrepancies due to e.g. latency of the network.

Just pretend you sent that transaction a millisecond before it was mined.


Excited to see this new release. Seems to me this would (slightly?) negatively impact query performance for recent data (when the query concerns data is both in O3 and persisted zones), is that the case?


Query performance would be affected in so far as ingest jobs share the same thread pool as query jobs. As I am writing this I am also realising that perhaps we should have an option to separate these jobs... If we ignore resource usage and commit() latency, query performance would remain unaffected. Reader remains lockless largely unchanged code-wise. This was one of our major objectives to maintain data model as seen by the readers. I hope I'm making sense here?


Proof-of-stake coins lack one of proof-of-work coins most important properties: censorship resistance.

In both consensus systems, a censor is someone that has amassed 51% of the currently available stake (in PoW stake is mining machines, in PoS it is outstanding tokens).

In proof-of-work systems, a censor can be unseated by censored parties allocating more capital to mining machines until non-censoring parties own 51% of all machines.

In proof-of-stake systems, it is impossible to unseat a censor: since it owns 51% of tokens, it will also owns 51% of newly minted units in perpetuity (assuming it doesn't stop censoring and doesn't run into issues that would end up slashing some of their stake).


The math in this article makes it sound trivial for any major government to destroy bitcoin. https://joekelly100.medium.com/how-to-kill-bitcoin-part-2-no... It points out that "But we can spend more on hardware then they could." is false. Once it was outlawed, they can just seize the mining hardware.

So PoS may actually be more resistant. Instead of acquiring physical hardware governments would have to start acquiring the currency. If they have to purchase it, it will drive the price up. While they maybe able to seize it in this scenario as well, it would seem the virtual crypto world would have better protection than the physical world.


USDT-USD markets are indeed marginal. however, implied USDT price using BTC as a cross shows USDT is valued pretty much at parity with the dollar by the market:

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/spread/BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT...


Yes, and that parity is precisely the thesis behind the author's contrarian short position.


inflation in consumer goods might not be high, but financial assets have clearly inflated: a quick look at gold denominated SPY shows it.


Why not TSLA/gold? That proves there is inflation! Or I know, BTC/USD, that clearly proves there's lots inflation and look at that bitcoin price is perfectly correlated with it!

(I am only half-joking here, the point is that broad inflation is much much more important than some bull market in this or that asset class)

On a more serious note a lot of commodities are looking really bullish, including some foodstuffs, and that's obviously not good news ...


Real estate inflation is the real driver behind practical inflation all over the world though.

Real estate bubble -> High deposits for house purchases -> High rents -> Effective inflation

Most governments don't include real estate (or even rent payments) in their inflation calculations to keep it artificially low.


> Most governments don't include real estate (or even rent payments) in their inflation calculations to keep it artificially low.

Housing is > 40% of the US CPI:

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/relative-importance/2019.pdf


"miners somehowd eviate from the conventional wisdom or the norm, which dictates that transactions are prioritized for inclusion based on the fee-per-byte metric"

Miners prioritize by fee-per-byte, except that the on-chain fee only accounts for part of the fee paid for some transactions.

Over the years, many services have popped up where you can pay an out-of-band fee to a miner to include your transactions first.

Of course, this is detrimental to users not using these systems as it biases the algorithms used to determine what is the current best fee-per-byte to pay.


Hopefully proper implementation of CPFP (child-pays-for-parent) on the miners' side and in the wallets would bring fully decentralized solution to the problem. So you could simply "bump" your transaction by sending a child one that pays higher feerate for both itself and the parent. That would be more efficient since that fee would go to all miners, not just those with the deals with "accelerators". And no one in between to collect extra fee.


Why would people use one of them rather than increase the fee? Is it just for "forgot to do it, I'll pay extra now" situations, or is there a reason to do it anyway?


In some cases, increasing the fee once the transaction has been broadcast is not possible (original transaction doesn't use replace-by-fee OR child-pay-for-parent is not possible)


As someone replied I researched a similar service years ago to get a friend's transaction unstuck. Usually just a credit card payment and the tx id and they mine it.


it weighs 490gr and the gold is 87.7% pure, that results in cube of side 2.8cm

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=490+*+0.877+grams+of+g...


Using a full node, you not only sync the history, but also validate it. In recent days, on a modern machine with a good internet connection, it takes less than 12hrs to achieve this.

If you don't care about validating the history, I guess using BigQuery would work but I don't know how to achieve it.


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