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> For your typical solo founder in their 30s, their odds of dying at any point over the next 10 years is something like 0.2%

The real figure is more 2.1% (source: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html)



I don't like these numbers. I preferred the old numbers.


Fair, I was just going by the risk of fatal cardiovascular events: https://www.cvriskcalculator.com/

I feel like the indie hacking lifestyle doesn't really attract people who are at high risk for most other common causes of death at that age, in the same way that, say, raising venture capital seems to be an attractive option for people already at risk of suicide or drug overdose.


I'm confused, where does the 2.1% come from. It does look like 0.001795 which is 0.2% for a 30 year old in the source you linked


.001795 for year 30 = .998205 survival this year

.001858 for year 31 = .998142

...

.002482 for year 39 = .997518

---------------------

.998205 x .998142 x ... x .997518 = .978997 survival rate over 10 years

1 - .978997 = .021003 chance of death = 2.1%


The number you read is for dying within the next year. The OP said within a decade.


OP also said "in their 30s" not "at 30". So I'd use 35-45 rather than 30-40, which shifts it a bit.


Since I already have the spreadsheet built for my other comment:

30-39 is 2.1%

35-44 is 2.5%

40-49 is 3.3%

---------

30-49 is 5.3%

Ranges are inclusive of entire year. 30-39 is 30th bday to 40th bday


Which is about the same rate that airlines lose luggage. (Unrelated comparison but analogies can help)


I've experienced an airline losing my luggage, but I haven't experienced death yet.

Maybe I'm immortal :)


Literal survivorship bias :-D


Maybe you've flewn more times than you lived from 30-40


That's a fairly deceptive analogy though. Many people check baggage a lot more (or less) than once per year.


That’s exactly the opposite of why it’s an unrelated analogy (which was stated). People live days of their lives far more often than they check baggage. Death is not a once per year risk. The risk of losing luggage per day or per hour of traveling is much higher than the risk of dying per hour/day of living.


>Death is not a once per year risk.

It absolutely is in the context of a discussion of annualized mortality rates.


My point was a response to the statement that baggage checking happens more than once per year. Life also happens more than once per year, and in fact it happens more often than checking baggage, right?

It’s misleading to annualize these stats because the participation rates per hour and per day are very very different. This is why sports risk is usually calculated in participation hours and not annualized, to prevent such misleading comparisons.


You are comparing it with the risk of dying in an year. That is a once per year risk.


It’s not a once per year risk, it’s an average. And you agree that changing the choice of time window for averaging will dramatically change the results, don’t you?


I guess most entrepreneurs are not dying from drugs or guns as they are simply too busy!


Unintentional injury (likely mostly car crashes?) seems to be the leading cause for all age group up to age 44. Then come suicide/homicide which only start declining in the ranks in your 40s, probably because other causes (cancer, heart conditions) start to take over.

I'm in my 40s and officially more likely to have my heart kill me, than myself.

https://wisqars.cdc.gov/fatal-leading




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