> Kahneman and Tversky's critique of Bayesian analysis is basically: If more data should override a prior belief, then why is it as more data comes in people have increasingly divergent opinions? For example we have 24 hour news media throwing information at us and people only seem to be more divided politically.
Does that example really fit their critique? We sometimes pretend we can compress a person's beliefs down to a single bit -- red vs blue -- and when you consider how many bits you'd expect your own political views to require it's unbelievable that anyone could offer a single bit a meaningful summary of them. The idea that anyone could even dream that a single bit could be a meaningful lossy compression of my views indicates there is not much meaningful diversity in the population.
Does that example really fit their critique? We sometimes pretend we can compress a person's beliefs down to a single bit -- red vs blue -- and when you consider how many bits you'd expect your own political views to require it's unbelievable that anyone could offer a single bit a meaningful summary of them. The idea that anyone could even dream that a single bit could be a meaningful lossy compression of my views indicates there is not much meaningful diversity in the population.