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If you look at the decline in the Chinese producer price index, it doesn't seem like that is accurate.


Some PRC manufacturers uniquely exposed to US market probably ate/split tariffs, but US like 5% of PRC exports, so it only matters so much. And after initial shock, most figured out to tranship/reroute and arbitrate lower tariff rates elsewhere and preserve margins.

Otherwise "broad" producer price index down primarily due to coal prices getting creamed by renewables, also cheap RU gas. When fossil/input prices drop, PRC PPI always drops. Industrial profit index for manufacturing sectors up 5-10%. Note broad industrial profit index down because it heavily weights state owned / SEO fossil sectors (aforementioned coal+oil dropped by 20-40%). Decompose industrial profits and story is PRC manufactures getting cheap energy and cheap inputs while growing profits more than they lower prices, aka why PRC winning trade game in the first place.


That declined more in 2023 110.6->107.9 and 2024 107.9->105.4 than 2025 105.4->103.6

Looks like around ~2% a year

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/producer-prices


It's stayed perfectly flat across Trump taking office? Consistent with the tariffs not changing the price at which China sells goods at all and the US consumer bearing the entire cost of the tariffs.

Click to, say, 3 year view of https://ycharts.com/indicators/china_producer_price_index




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