It's really amazing. Anyone still remembers Dojo ? 2 years ago or so they stated that they start to mass produce Dojo and it was supposed to be a top 5 supercomputer in the world by the end of 2024...
Yeah, that was already almost 1 year after they were supposedly planning to have the top 5 compute ...
The reality is they announced that as a pipe dream. Just like the FSD, Robotaxi, Optimus and 10 other projects that will never work - or more precisely, they will work but >10 years from now, and it won't be from Tesla but from a competitor.
I don't personally want to get into that kind of betting, but in theory...
If I had bet that purchasable Teslas wouldn't have level 3 or level 4 driving by 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 I would have won every single one of those bets.
FSD is improving, but they finally put "supervised" in the name for a reason. It's a feature-packed level 2. That doesn't meet the bar.
One would be crazy to bet on that on Polymarket. They had a bet for Tesla Robotaxi rollout before end of 2025 and it resolved to YES. So it must be like your FSD - Tesla is apparently already operating a general public access autonomus Robotaxi, maybe even 50% of the US population like the CEO said.
https://thedriven.io/2023/06/22/tesla-to-start-building-its-...