> Most published polls claimed Trump vs Harris is about 50:50.
But were they wrong?
Not objectively. "50:50" means that if Trump and Harris had 1,000 elections, it would be unlikely for Harris to not win about 500. But since there was only one election, and the probability wasn't significantly towards Harris, the outcome doesn't even justify questioning the odds, and definitely doesn't disprove them.
Subjectively, today it seems like Trump's victory was practically inevitable, but that's in part because of hindsight bias. Politics in the US is turbulent, and I can imagine plenty of plausible scenarios where the world was just slightly different and Harris won. For example, what if the Epstein revelations and commentary happened one year earlier?
There's a good argument that political polls in general are unreliable and vacuous; I don't believe this for every poll, but I do for ones that say "50:50" in a country with turbulent "vibe-politics" like the US. If you believe this argument, since none of the polls state anything concrete, it follows that none them are actually wrong (and it's not just the left making this kind of poll).
But were they wrong?
Not objectively. "50:50" means that if Trump and Harris had 1,000 elections, it would be unlikely for Harris to not win about 500. But since there was only one election, and the probability wasn't significantly towards Harris, the outcome doesn't even justify questioning the odds, and definitely doesn't disprove them.
Subjectively, today it seems like Trump's victory was practically inevitable, but that's in part because of hindsight bias. Politics in the US is turbulent, and I can imagine plenty of plausible scenarios where the world was just slightly different and Harris won. For example, what if the Epstein revelations and commentary happened one year earlier?
There's a good argument that political polls in general are unreliable and vacuous; I don't believe this for every poll, but I do for ones that say "50:50" in a country with turbulent "vibe-politics" like the US. If you believe this argument, since none of the polls state anything concrete, it follows that none them are actually wrong (and it's not just the left making this kind of poll).