Your point about measuring errors is an interesting one. I think definitely CEO’s / business leaders are very good at deflecting negative responsibility and aggregating positive outcomes. Not exclusively. I know several senior leaders who are very very competent. But I think in business it is typically easier to look good, than do good. Across most domains.
I think the ambiguity part is a bit of an illusion - lots of people who make good predictions on complex things, have good, informal, decision making models. But like an llm, a lot of their minds are black boxes, even unto themselves. Therefore hard to replicate.
I think the ambiguity part is a bit of an illusion - lots of people who make good predictions on complex things, have good, informal, decision making models. But like an llm, a lot of their minds are black boxes, even unto themselves. Therefore hard to replicate.