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For one I would not accept that trade off at all. But secondly it's exceedingly unlikely. Policing has barely any impact on crime rate. The governor of NYC deployed national guard to the subways and they stand around doing nothing. Police also routinely stand around doing nothing. Crime spiked from the pandemic and dropped when it ended. No public policy has made more than a marginal impact. Crime rate is dictated by economics.

What are 10000 federal agents and soldiers going to do? Walk around looking for crime to stop? DC has the most police per capita of any city in America. How much crime do they stop by standing around? At best they respond to 911 calls and federal agents aren't plugged in to 911. What the hell are they going to do about crime that isn't in the streets? And are they going to do traffic enforcement because that's probably 99% of the unenforced crime in any city.

Weigh that against Pam Bondi stating in no uncertain terms that DC will be completely crime free in short order. This is pure theater.



The idea is that with more police presence, criminals will think twice before attempting anything. Standing around is part of this.

A good example of this is NYC around 2000. It worked.


> A good example of this is NYC around 2000. It worked.

Counterexample: https://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-proacti...

"Each week during the slowdown saw civilians report an estimated 43 fewer felony assaults, 40 fewer burglaries and 40 fewer acts of grand larceny. And this slight suppression of major crime rates actually continued for seven to 14 weeks after those drops in proactive policing — which led the researchers to estimate that overall, the slowdown resulted in about 2,100 fewer major-crimes complaints."

"“In their efforts to increase civilian compliance, certain policing tactics may inadvertently contribute to serious criminal activity,” the researchers wrote. “The implications for understanding policing in a democratic society should not be understated.”"

"“Our results imply not only that these tactics fail at their stated objective of reducing major legal violations, but also that the initial deployment of proactive policing can inspire additional crimes that later provide justification for further increasing police stops, summonses and so on,” the authors wrote."

NYC did indeed see a big crime drop in the 2000s… but so did everywhere else. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States#/me...


Counterexample: as soon as these policies stopped, crime dramatically increased.


I've lived in NYC since the mid-90s which was about the peak for crime so that's exactly what I'm commenting on. The police did some things better, but the dropping crime rates were not just local or even national, but global. No mayor or police chief can take credit for it. Similarly if you want to attribute the 2020 crime wave and recent ebb, it begins and ends with COVID-19. No humans involved at all.




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