AGI is a annonymous good model coming around the corner with no company and no LLM researchers attached. AGI is when the LLM hype train threads are replaced with CEOs and let go researchers demanding UBI.
It's easy to treat AGI as one thing — I did so myself before everyone's differing reaction to LLMs made me realise we all mean different things by each of the three letters of the initialism, and that none of those initials are really boolean valued.
Given how Dutch disease[0] is described, I suspect that if the "G" (general) increases with fixed "I" (intelligence), as the proportion of economic activity for which the Pareto frontier is AI rather than human expands, I think humans will get pay rises for the remaining work right up until they get unemployable.
On the other hand, if "G" is fully general and it's "I" which rises for a suitable cost[1], it goes through IQ 55 (displacing no workers) to IQ 100 (probably close to half of workers redundant, but mean of population doesn't have to equal mean of workforce), to IQ 145 (almost everyone redundant), to IQ 200 (definitionally renders everyone redundant).
[1] A fully-general AGI with the equivalent of IQ 200 on any possible test, still can't replace a single human if it costs 200 trillion USD per year to run.
This is why I suspect that slapping “Artificial” in the acronym is rather forward of us as a species. If we do end up eventually with something we consider intelligent, there won’t be anything artificial about it.
