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SignalGate Is Driving the Most US Downloads of Signal Ever (wired.com)
123 points by bentobean 10 months ago | hide | past | favorite | 86 comments


The main question is whether this will lead to a flywheel effect, where adoption is self-reinforcing. Because we've been seeing that in the Netherlands, a small country that is nevertheless now in the top 5 countries with most Signal users, where growth is now 25 times the usual rate. That is still a quite higher rate than:

> the week’s rate of adoption has been twice that of a typical week for 2025, which in turn was twice that of a typical week the same time last year.

Market penetration here is getting significant enough for more and more people.

[1] https://signalapp.nl/signal-app-nieuws/nederland-top-5-land-...

[2] https://signalapp.nl/signal-app-nieuws/nederlanders-kiezen-m...


If Signal gets too popular then server costs will become significant. Signal needs a viable business model to survive. The big weakness here is that there is only one entity that can run the servers. If that server goes away then any attempt to start it up again would have to do so at the high level of usage that originally killed Signal.

Signal is, alas, merely a project. It will never morph into something like email that can withstand server running entities disappearing. So huge popularity could actually be a bad thing...


> If Signal gets too popular then server costs will become significant. Signal needs a viable business model to survive.

Signal is an incredibly lightweight design. If all users donated $0.60/year, or 5¢/month, that would sustain operations and overhead.

Compared to most other services, that's an insanely low cost per user.

EDIT: It's actually way less than even what I remembered - they only need about $0.60/user/year in order to break even, not $3/user/month.


Sure, but how would they go about capturing that money?


As usual, by having 1% of the users pay 100x the rate, because $60/y aka $5/mo is nothing to them. That is, identify well-moneyed users and offer them something substantially-looking but trivial to support. Twitter/X's blue marks are a perfect example.


Is this the one percent fallacy? Would 0.01% of users be willing to pay 10000x that amount?


> Would 0.01% of users be willing to pay 10000x that amount?

Apparently so, since Signal broke even last year.


But we were talking about a future situation where it became popular enough that the costs became much more considerable.


If every user of free software donated for all the free software they use, people's monthly donation bill for their "free" software would be hundreds of dollars or more.


so what? that's not a reason to not donate at all. It's not an "all or nothing" proposition. donating a little is still better than donating nothing.

(and what's more, I disagree with your premise. I think I'd everyone donated, the cost would be very spread out and it would be shockingly affordable, especially relative to the benefits we get)


That $3/month figure actually makes me more concerned. Sure it's low for a business with revenue but donation funded services rarely get donations from more than a few percent of their users. So Signal probably needs something like $30-40/month from people who actually donate, which seems unlikely.


> That $3/month figure actually makes me more concerned. Sure it's low for a business with revenue but donation funded services rarely get donations from more than a few percent of their users

That's way, way lower than most other services, including most messaging services.

And donations aren't Signal's only source of revenue. Over a third comes from other sources.

> So Signal probably needs something like $30-40/month from people who actually donate, which seems unlikely.

Well, they broke even last year, so apparently it does work out.


The minimum I can choose in-app is £5 ~$6.50/month (unless I do a one-time £3). I notice on their website they accept crypto, stock and "DAF" https://signal.org/donate/


Just to be explicit, since your comment doesn't mention it: via your link they also accept Credit Card, PayPal, and bank transfers, and you can specify custom amounts there.


> The minimum I can choose in-app is £5 ~$6.50/month (unless I do £3 one-off).

Price points are location-dependent, which is why it's a nice round figure for you in GBP even though Signal is not based in the UK.

Also, as you noted, they accept donations outside the app.


My point is that it's a rather high minimum (as is $5 if you select USD), not the roundness of the suggested amount.


Before getting Zuckered, WhatsApp was run by a 10 person team or something.

Running chat apps doesn't have to be super expensive if you know what you're doing.


$3/month is a lot of money, when their current revenue per user is approximately $0/month.


I think this is also due to Skype announcing it's shutting down.


Exactly. That has driven me and several colleagues to Signal.

Plus, you never know when a MAGA will share incriminating info with you. Extra bonus!


Probably because people are realizing that it has the auto-delete feature that the Whitehouse is DEFINITELY not relying on in having senior staff communicate on this platform.


> that the Whitehouse is DEFINITELY not relying on

No need to speculate; The Atlantic has the deets.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/03/signal-...

From the first screenshot: "Disappearing message time was set to 1 week."


I think GP means "relying on" in the "avoiding official record keeping" sense rather than the feature being used literally. You could explain away the latter as a bug or accident, BUT given the brazen corruption of this admin, they're probably using it intentionally to skirt existing laws or procedures.


There is zero reason for them not to just blatantly avoid keeping legally-required records.

They illegally fired the watchdogs put in place after Nixon (practically the only fucking useful thing we did about that—the laughably weak handling of the Watergate affair, and, shortly after, Iran-Contra, sent us well down the path we're possibly seeing the end of now) as one of their first acts, and nothing bad happened. Nothing they've done to evade legally-required scrutiny and oversight has brought them any trouble at all so far. Why would they stop?


Yes!


yeah, I mean if you can accidentally added to group chats where you can obtain classified information...



Finally, a positive form of Streisand Effect!!!


I don't understand why someone, under guidance from the NSA and others, hasn't built a hardware/software platform for secure communications for yahoos like this. Leak any classified data on a normal phone even in an e2e encrypted app, straight to jail.

Get your phone rooted by pegasus or whatever the newest chinese/israeli/whoever 0 click exploit and your fancy signal data is wide the fuck open. It's literally insane to me.


Their boss (president) is a convicted felon. Do you expect them to go to jail for such incident?


As I understand it they do all have a hardware device they can use for secure communications. Presumably, it's just more of a hassle.


Yeah, they refer to it as “high side” in this group chat..


Disappointed to see that even Wired is falling into the frame of the scandal being the accidental inclusion of a member of the public in a sensitive chat. Once again, Wired, the scandal is that the VP and the members of the cabinet are categorically forbidden from using Signal for any reason.


If I didn't know any better, I'd say these people were acting like they were picked by a convicted felon who acts like he's above the law, mainly because his experience tells him that he is.


> his experience tells him that he is.

Well, also the entire government said as much, including the the AG, whose belief is a sitting President can't be indicted, and SCOTUS, who claims basically, that the President can't engage in illegal acts.

The only theoretical mechanism left is impeachment, but if the impossible happens and Congress does vote to remove, the administration will ignore it, or have SCOTUS rule against it. It just depends on how above board they care to pretend to make it look.


It’s almost funny how the land with no kings nor lords gleefully bows to their new, self-proclaimed king now.


Eh, some of it does.

The other portion either finds him annoying or despises him with an ire that few outside the US can comprehend.


All the inconvenient rules that make the low level employees less efficient don't apply to the upper ranks. That allows them to complain about their employees.


The other, other scandal is that they collapsed a building on many innocent people in the process. This action comes at a high price both morally and in terms of ensuring the legitimacy of the enemy among the civilian population.

A similar gross error / crime was committed at the beginning of the war in Somalia, and was in the view of some the single action that contributed the most to US ground forces being pulled into the conflict. In that case, a missile was fired into a meeting room where tribal leaders were conferring.


Unfortunately, that’s not a scandal. It’s business as usual and generally considered acceptable.


I’m not sure why you think that is a scandal; isn’t it a good thing that civil servants and members of the government are supposed to use government-controlled communications channels with proper access control, encryption, and retention in place? Why should they rely on a third-Party, commercial provider, and why on earth is it a scandal that they are forbidden from doing so..?


If the president can declassify any information then can he just say "using signal is ok" and that's that?


AFAIK they can use it for stuff they're not legally required to keep records on.

... which very much does not include most of the contents of the exchanges in question.


There is literally nothing that can transpire between the VP and the SecDef that would not be subject to the PRA.


Can't it be both?


They are?


Well if it's good enough for the president to discuss with chiefs bombings and his latest grift, than I suppose it's good enough for me.


To every veteran and aerospace engineer who honored the classification of information, this incident and likely prior ones, is horrendous and criminal.

Violators are immediately arrested and charged. I hate to see top-level exceptions to both record-keeping and mishandling of classified information. That's where they do the most damage.

As others have noted, the flaw in using Signal on consumer phones is due to vulnerabilities in the phone itself. And it was wrong to use consumer phones.

That said, I was recommending Signal to friends in order to have online discussions, using the conferencing feature, since it is cross-platform and cross-device. However, one friend lost their Apple login and can't install software on their phone. I sent a very long explainer on how to reset it.

Guess I'll try face-time conferencing, which works on Apple Devices [0] and will work with others via web [1]. Requires ios 15 or Monterey to initiate.

We have been using free, limited, zoom sessions.

[0] https://support.apple.com/en-us/111767 [1] https://support.apple.com/en-us/109364


Why not use Jitsi? Flawless experience every time.

The mobile app is polished and exists for both Android and iOS.

Throw it up on a budget VPS host and you have E2E video calling without any MiTM.


> We have been using free, limited, zoom sessions.

How secure are those?


Signal is end-to-end encrypted.

Signal makes it very difficult to even tell what parties are talking to each other (though if you have nation-state-level internet tracking, you can probably tell.)

Signal doesn't know anything about you except your number or screenname, when you signed up, and when you were last active.

Zoom is none of those things and the grandparent commenter has no idea what they're talking about.


.

  >and the grandparent commenter has no idea what they're talking about.
What is this all about? I can't really see what you seem to disagree with?


signal may be e2e encrypted, but if i root your phone with a 0 click exploit. Which most of the state level actors we care about can and do do. Then I can just read your signal messages out of memory as soon as you open them. period. end of.

Using a public smartphone to conduct discussions about classified information is straight crazy. E2E encrypted or not.


We discuss Buddhist writings. Polite guests would be welcome, but I'm afraid that most would be bored.


Depends on which country you live in.


Very insecure.


You can be secure in the knowledge that the Chinese Communist Party can and will eavesdrop on any session.


I read this as you suggesting that signal is somehow at fault here?

If I'm getting that wrong, ignore me, if I'm not, could you expand that? I don't follow how signal did anything wrong here, or was in any way responsible.


I don't see any part they are saying this is Signal's fault (vs the fault of the people who committed the "horrendous and criminal" acts? Which part are you referring to?


I thought I made it clear that the phone OS is vulnerable. Like, what good is encryption when malware can steal your camera, microphone and screen? Zero. I have been a Signal fan for a long time.


I interpreted the message sas aying the fault lies with those who transmitted the top-secret through Signal and not a fault of the Signal company/app.


He is saying that the USERS (aka the cabinet) should be arrested for disclosure of attack plans.


[flagged]


It's at least CUI. At _least_. I would suggest material that is operational in those regards would be secret or top secret. It had:

* timelines of kinetic resource missions * conops including order of battle, etc.

Per normal ODNI bits, it's pretty clearly within bounds for classification.


The problem isn't specifically the release of this information, which to my understanding didn't reduce the effectiveness of the operation. But the real problem is that now that other state actors and intelligence agencies know that our top military and intelligence officials sometimes share details of impending operations on their personal cell phones, there is now a pretty strong incentive to try to crack those phones or crack the Signal protocol somehow to get access to that information. And Signal and Apple do their best but they don't have the kind of resources that the NSA or CIA can bring to bear on securing a piece of equipment from espionage.


The more interesting part for me is, this is just one instance we found out because they screwed up. I am sure there are many many more of these channels where national security details are discussed.

Signal still is hosted in the US, do we know how much they will fight if the government asks it to retrieve someone's messages? I don't know if I trust messaging apps that are already pandering to the administration to keep my data safe or fight to not decrypt my data.


Their shtick is that they won't have to fight much, because they can't turnover someone's messages. Here are some examples of where they were legally compelled to turn over everything they had, and they did - but it was roughly nothing: https://signal.org/bigbrother/


We can expect that every military action has a principals committee (if not a principles committee).

Most actions that are on the record, with classified data properly conveyed through their "high side" inboxes and properly archived, will have those records accessible to special counsel or historical analysts. If, as I suspect, most of the current cabinet's principals committees are meeting over Signal, the records of those communications will be conspicuously absent.

It's not like these guys are masterminds meticulously generating compelling and consistent alternate records in the SCIF, then also pulling out their phones and telling most of the same people most of the same things in group chat messages. They're just not having the discussions in the SCIF at all, and that will be evident to anyone who cares to investigate.


Sorry, to clarify: when I said "they", I meant Signal.


This schtick is just that, a schtick thats only as strong as whoever is fighting against it...

https://www.devever.net/~hl/webcrypto


Signal is distributed as an app. Furthermore, the client is open source, you can see the repositories here:

https://github.com/signalapp

I don't know the latest details about Android/iOS app signing, but presumably reproducible builds + sufficiently strong signing would make it secure enough for most users. For those who are truly paranoid, then can build it themselves (subject to their own device OS's requirements, which are hardly a unique problem to Signal).

In short, Signal's security should be as good as any mobile app can be, and can be even better if you're willing to put in legwork.


When was the last time you verified that the update being pushed to the app store by signal matches the git repo?

When was the last time you checked what updates have been made to the git repo?

Of course what you're saying is "technically" possible to avoid signal changing code and circumventing encryption, but show me one person who does a check of all the changes to signal source(and verified the binary matches) before they let their app store update it and they launch it...

Everyone I know has signal auto-update through the app store and don't even know it updated until after they launch it.


Well, the security should be good enough for most people's threat models. But government officials will probably want to have some restrictions on who can be added to a group, for example.


The government could definitely compel Google to give a list of users a malicious Signal update


The government could compel signal to do this, no?

They haven't, but if they decide they want to what's technologically stopping signal from:

1. Making an update that doesn't exist in git which pushes decrypted messages to their server when you launch the app

2. Push this update to the app store

If a government ever compelled them to?


I don't believe Signal has a web app. Am I wrong?

I understand the point about the app being distributed by the same people who run the service, but it's much harder to hide shenanigans with a local app versus a web app, especially when the app is open source.


When was the last time you verified an update to signal against the source code? The threat model is circumvented for people that do that before every update, but unless you're doing that they can push whatever code they want to your app.


What's your point/goal with this and your cousin comments? Yes, of course at some point you need to trust a binary or verify yourself. I'm technically correct and you're technically correct. What are you getting at? Do you suggest people not use Signal? What do you suggest as an alternative? What should Signal do to change things? Splitting management of the app and service doesn't help much; a compromised browser, not co-owned with the services it accesses, is enough to eavesdrop on someone despite HTTPS.


My point is to make a comment on social media and get responses to see what other people think.

All I'm getting at is that any company that distributes code to you and tells you they can't see your data is lying. They just don't want to access your data right now.

I would suggest people understand this and position themselves accordingly security-wise.

If that means not using signal because its not secure enough then ok.

If that means continuing to use signal with the understanding that it's only secure until signal decides they want your data(or a gov forces them to), then ok

Splitting management of an app and service is the exact solution. If signal can't control when to push updates to your phone then they can't control when they want to break encryption.

In your compromised browser example we understand that browsers have an interest in imementing HTTPS correctly and treat them accordingly. That's part of the reason the market is dominated by 2 engines that do their development as much in the public as possible


What does that article have to do with Signal?


Signal is an app whose distribution is controlled by the same people that say they don't have access to your data.

They could at any point push an update that decrypts your messages locally and pushes them decrypted to a server. The only way to prevent this would be to verify each binary update to signal matches the source code, and no modifications have been made to the source to do this.

Is that part of your "signal update" routine?


Signal is quite militant about keeping as little information as possible, and actively resisting subpoenas. I think signal is one of the least likely companies to cooperate with the US government on surveillance.

They aren't pandering to the government either. In fact they jokingly made fun of the US administration for this signal mistake.


Like anything US based the risk from government is not so much technical correctness but the risk that they (or Google or Apple or whoever distributes the app) could secretly be compelled to do something like distribute a version of Signal that exfiltrates private keys or messages, perhaps based on specific criteria, w/o the user's knowledge. On top of the risks inherent in the underlying platforms (iOS, Android, etc.).

Signal also does not think that warrant canaries pass legal muster.

But it's still probably the best option. And if you're concerned by those risks I think building and auditing the public source code instead of relying on app store distribution would mitigate.


Signal can't retrieve anyone messages since messages are end-to-end encrypted. The whole point is that the server can't decrypt messages. In addition, Signal doesn't store the messages or even logs about the messages. There is no way to verify this, but Signal has shown how they responded to requests in the past.

Signal hasn't been pandering to the US government. All their previous behavior is that they would tell off the government if asked to add a backdoor. Keep in mind that Signal is non-profit, not company trying to make money.


it doesn't matter. If I root your phone I can read your signal messages as soon as the app is open right out of memory. State level actors have, in the past and one imagines still, utilized sophisticated malware that doesn't even require any user action (aka 0click) to root android and ios.


It does matter that it requires compromising the device instead of the server being able to read all messages.

All cryptosystems are vulnerable to compromised devices and $5 wrenches.


End to end encryption. They don't store messages on their servers. There's nothing to retrieve...




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