Ten years? Maybe. But our workflow will have changed to accommodate AI being the primary code generator.
Twenty years? The new workflow from ten years will be standard and AI will be able to competently do all code generation.
Will AI replace software developers? Yes, and many of those developers will have transitioned to new work driving the new workflow.
By the time AI is ready to replace the developers driving the new workflow, then there's very little at that point that humans can do, and AI can't, without assistance from humans. In other words, replacing software developers isn't our biggest problem because by the time AI can do that, nearly all humans are replaceable.
Ten years? Maybe. But our workflow will have changed to accommodate AI being the primary code generator.
Twenty years? The new workflow from ten years will be standard and AI will be able to competently do all code generation.
Will AI replace software developers? Yes, and many of those developers will have transitioned to new work driving the new workflow.
By the time AI is ready to replace the developers driving the new workflow, then there's very little at that point that humans can do, and AI can't, without assistance from humans. In other words, replacing software developers isn't our biggest problem because by the time AI can do that, nearly all humans are replaceable.