> Nvidia loses it's biggest moat and ability to monopolize the tech, CUDA isn't enough
CUDA is plenty for right now. AMD can't/won't get their act together with GPU software and drivers. Intel isn't in much better of a position than AMD and has a host of other problems. It's also unlikely the "let's just glue a thousand ARM cores together" hardware will work as planned and still needs the software layer.
CUDA won't be an Nvidia moat forever but it's a decent moat for the next five years. If a company wants to build GPU compute resources it will be hard to go wrong buying Nvidia kit. At least from a platform point of view.
CUDA will still be a moat for the near future and nobody is saying that Nvidia will die, but the thing is that Nvidia margins will drop like crazy and so will it's valuation. It will go back down to being a "medium tech" company.
Basically training got way cheaper, and for inference you don't really need nvidia, so even if there's an increase for cheaper chips there's no way the volume makes up for the loss of margin.
No, Nvidia's margins won't drop at all and the proof for this is Apple.
The units of AI accelerators will explode, the market will explode.
At the end of the day, Nvidia will have 20-30% of the unit share in AI HW and 70-80% of the profit share in the AI HW market. Just like Apple makes 3x the money compared to the rest of the smartphone market.
Jensen has considered Nvidia a premium vendor for 2 decades and track record of Nvidia's margins show this.
And while Nvidia remains a high premium AI infrastructure vendor, they will also add lots of great SW frameworks to make even more profit.
Omniverse has literally no competition. That digital world simulation combines all of Nvidia's expertise (AI HW, Graphics HW, Physics HW, Networking, SW) into one huge product. And it will be a revolution because it's the first time we will be able to finally digitalize the analog world. And Nvidia will earn tons of money because Omniverse itself is licensed, it needs OVX systems (visual part) and it needs DGX systems (AI part).
Don't worry, Nvidia's margins will be totally fine. I would even expect them to be higher in 10 years than they are today. Nobody believes that but that's Jensen's goal.
There is a reason why Nvidia has always been the company with the highest P/S ratio and anyone who understands why, will see the quality management immediately.
CUDA is plenty for right now. AMD can't/won't get their act together with GPU software and drivers. Intel isn't in much better of a position than AMD and has a host of other problems. It's also unlikely the "let's just glue a thousand ARM cores together" hardware will work as planned and still needs the software layer.
CUDA won't be an Nvidia moat forever but it's a decent moat for the next five years. If a company wants to build GPU compute resources it will be hard to go wrong buying Nvidia kit. At least from a platform point of view.