Right now it's looking like China. As R1 exemplifies, but also, say, their EV and general manufacturing industry, they are the ones who are actually scrambling to produce more and better stuff (doesn't matter whether you like AI, the point is they're apparently at the forefront of many fields), while countries like the USA are only scrambling to see who gets to own the less and worse stuff they produce. I don't live there so I don't know how that's achieved, what insane human rights violations they have, but from the perspective of only predicting who wins, it doesn't really matter how they win.