SNAFU is high on my list too, though generally I'd expect someone to have jumped in front of this by now. (That may be happening; see the responses from Congress today, which are the sort of thing that would look like.) Again, part of my analysis is the length of time this has been occurring; theories I had in the first couple of days generally involved the problem being only a couple of days old. The longer the mystery persists, the more we have to reconsider such theories.