A few years? Sonnet 3.5 is a better API-mediated solution today, LLaMA 3.2 is one full turn of the crank from GPT-4-1106-preview parity.

It’s dramatically easier to list the researchers or executives of any note who remain than the ones that have left.

This is like when John Romero did Ion Storm without Carmack. Maybe, maybe, GPT-5 is tracking as a viable family of training runs today, it certainly wasn’t 6 months ago when it was already badly late.

And even if it is: there won’t be another on the handful of world-class research staff they have left. Now you get Canvas and shit that even they don’t think will stick.

OpenAI seems to have been losing it. They now cannot even get basic accounting to work correctly. They look to have lost all Credit Grants entries for users for Sept 2024. They then went out of their way to give active users a free credit of nearly $100 to make up for the loss of this accounting data. They didn't even issue a formal announcement of this screwup. As a user, it makes me worried.

I don't want to overlook that they introduced Canvas today, but all parts have to work correctly for the system to work. It's not a fully cybernetic system yet.