I wonder how much money they make per trip. If they were to simply stop R&D, would they be profitable on a per trip basis? (Are they covering wear and tear on the vehicles, server costs for the app, etc.)
I know this doesn't directly get at profitability, but your question had me thinking. From Uber's latest 10-Q [1], we know that their "gross bookings per trip" is ~$15/trip. If we use this as a benchmark, Waymo’s 100,000 fully autonomous rides per week would generate roughly $1.5 million per week or $78 million in ARR.
But it's a huge stretch to compare these apples-to-apples. It's just the closest thing I can think of to anchor to. The cost structures could be markedly different (since Waymo directly owns and operates its fleet, and bears direct costs for vehicle depreciation, maintenance, insurance, and the whole tech stack enabling autonomy). Right now those fixed and variable costs are likely higher than Uber's (which only take commission on rides while drivers bear the opex).
I've been using it and I really like it. The cars are always clean and comfortable, you can choose the music, and you don't need to talk to anyone. A couple bucks more than Lyft/Uber though, and there was one time it got stuck negotiating a two way one lane road when another car was coming, but people have trouble with that situation too.
The first time you take a ride in one is really amazing, it really makes you think "I'm living in the future." I recommend anyone visiting SF take one.
I work in map annotation for waymo for europe and a lot of work is coming lately. they pay good bonuses for overtime. I suspect this is just the beginning of the scaling process.
Assuming these users are real people, it seems notable that spontaneously someone replying includes an example Waymo having to send out support to remove some cones in a parking lot so the car could move.
I have been wondering how long these programs continue to be funded without some change in the interest rates and overall investment climate, because it really seems like just a cursory analysis of these various self-driving car programs does not reveal something profitable in near-term, especially as they get larger they are going to run into what I call the "city bus" problem, where people leave garbage and other really disgusting messes in the vehicle.
There's a good chance they have a positive gross profit, otherwise they wouldn't be scaling so quickly (almost 10x in s year).
Waymo isn't going anywhere, people love their service, they plan to launch in a fourth city (Austin) later this year and the cost per mile will only go down in the future. For example, their 6th gen car is substantially cheaper per their claim.
