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> Yes, all commerce involves confidence. The difference with banks is both sides of their balance sheet are not only entirely confidence based, they’re leveraged to the hilt on it.

I'll give you that defense is not in the same league as banking if you'll give me that defense is not in the same league as SaaS (even enterprise/F500 SaaS). By the way, defense companies do get a lot of leverage based on their federal contracting lines. It's 2024, a bank can get you leverage on a ham sandwich, and companies are usually pretty big users of it (they are encouraged to be).

> Put another way: does restructuring threaten their defence line more than the status quo? I don’t know the answer, but I think it’s a valid question. (I’m familiar with their space lone and am halfway to writing it off.)

Yes. Defense contracts in general cannot be awarded to firms in bankruptcy or that have been in bankruptcy in the last 5-10 years. That is because financial solvency threatens acquisition timelines, and in a bankruptcy, anything can happen.



> give you that defense is not in the same league as banking if you'll give me that defense is not in the same league as SaaS

Sure, though I’m not sure what leagues we’re talking about.

> defense companies do get a lot of leverage based on their federal contracting lines

Circle back when they’re financing a $4tn of assets on $300bn equity and $2.4tn of ultra-short term liabilities [1].

> Defense contracts in general cannot be awarded to firms in bankruptcy or that have been in bankruptcy in the last 5-10 years

Is this in statute or a rule? Does the contract officer have any discretion?

> in a bankruptcy, anything can happen

Government contracts are decently protected in bankruptcy, e.g. via the Anti Assignment Act.

[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JPM/balance-sheet/


That's a rule, not a law, and I am not sure about how exceptions are made. And existing contracts will be fine, but new contracts will just not be awarded.




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