China is currently directly involved in helping Africa leapfrog the fossil fuel technology that the industrialized West relied on for economic growth. You won't find much about this in the Western corporate media for fairly obvious reasons, but clearly the world can completely eliminate fossil fuel use within 50 years.
My point is this trajectory still absolutely guarantees steady warming at around current rates 0.1 - 0.2 C per decade IIRC for the next several hundred years. All the tech fixes, aerosol injection etc., only mask the issue for a decade or two and are best classified as worthless scams. The only option is adaptation to new conditions, with replacement of fossil fuels with renewables and storage as priority #1.
Of course fossil fuel producers and exporters like the United States, Russia, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia etc. don't want to hear this, but that cash cow is going the way of whale oil and the kerosene lamp, and fast. There will be much howling and gnashing of teeth.
As far as climate refugees, well maybe - but don't underestimate the capability of humans to adapt to new (degraded) conditions. I'd expect a steep decline in birthrate across much of the world as the pressure rises, however.
The tremendous, astronomical injustice of the climate catastrophe is that specifically the societies that are the least responsible for it, and the least able to mitigate and adapt to it, are going to be the worst affected by its consequences.
This is really not as definitive as you claim, although it is a popular talking point. Polar amplification of warming is well-understood, that's where the greatest temperature swings will take place, and that's going to impact Europe, North America, Japan, Russia, etc. heavily. Nobody is going to escape the consequences, it's planet-wide.
Aug 2022 "The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979"
My point is this trajectory still absolutely guarantees steady warming at around current rates 0.1 - 0.2 C per decade IIRC for the next several hundred years. All the tech fixes, aerosol injection etc., only mask the issue for a decade or two and are best classified as worthless scams. The only option is adaptation to new conditions, with replacement of fossil fuels with renewables and storage as priority #1.
Of course fossil fuel producers and exporters like the United States, Russia, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia etc. don't want to hear this, but that cash cow is going the way of whale oil and the kerosene lamp, and fast. There will be much howling and gnashing of teeth.
As far as climate refugees, well maybe - but don't underestimate the capability of humans to adapt to new (degraded) conditions. I'd expect a steep decline in birthrate across much of the world as the pressure rises, however.