You also wrote:

> But... I'm going to give Musk the benefit of the doubt, because ...

I think we're both agreeing that "the jury is out", but disagreeing about which side of the question that jury is deciding should be the one with the "presumption of innocence" :)

Yeah, there's an even larger track record of making decisions that look unwise in the moment and everyone told him they were unwise and turns out they were unwise. That Bayesian prior makes it the most likely outcome until the jury returns with sufficiently convincing evidence to the contrary.