> SpaceX has made it to MI complex status, and US gov will easily bail them out should worst come.

immaterial: "the worst" here is elon destroying the engineering culture & with it their ability to keep improving on what they've done so far. not going bankrupt (by way of a bailout or otherwise) is a necessary condition for avoiding the worst (boeing syndrome), but it's not sufficient

fedgov can pour money into the military industrial complex, but it can't do a whole lot more, and that only goes so far

Boeing destroyed its engineering culture and it isn't going anywhere.

Suppose for the sake of argument I managed to secure some sort of annuity that pays just enough to subsist on, starting now.

Knowing that I'm guaranteed enough income to stay minimally solvent does not mean I have no reason to care about losing additional income streams that enable me to have things like vacations and dinners at nice restaurants and digital watches.

Similarly, the relative security of the ~1/3 of Boeing's revenue that comes from government contracts is probably small consolation to its shareholders. They do that business more-or-less at cost; essentially 100% of their profits come from other sources.

>They do that business more-or-less at cost;

Aren't all govt contracts cost plus?

Developmental contracts sure.

Buying COTS products; probably not.

Also, the "plus" part covers both overhead and profit. So, depending on what your overhead situation looks like, profit can still be minimal or non-positive.

Sure but the "plus" part is capped [1] for cost+plus.

If you're buying AWS compute through GSA I bet the rate is more than AWS's costs + 10/15%.

Or if you purchase say post-it notes from Staples; I bet they're going to be way more than the cost of paper+glue*1.15.

[1]: https://www.acquisition.gov/far/15.404-4#FAR_15_404_4__d941e...

In other words, Space X will exist as long as there are no competitors. That gives them years, not decades.

Are there any competitors expected to match SpaceX's launch costs or capacity in the next few years?

Blue Origin will catch up any time now...