It's current a popular tech, so it must have no realistic limit.

Just like the 1969 moon landing meant spaceships for everybody and space colonies in 30 years...

That was more an issue of political will and priorities than technological limits, though.

I don't it would have moved far, even with 10x the budget.

There are very real technical and physical and physiological limits preventing this which might be overcome at some point, but not in a few decades through sheer will, or more money at the problem, or because "it's inevitable".

Strawman. To assume the similarities between space travel in the 60s and AI now only goes as far as "current popular tech" you're either not arguing in good faith or severely short sighted.

I'm not making an argument by analogy, as much as making a prediction of a similar trajectory and similar dissapointment.

That said, there are tons of examples of hyped "current technologies" sold as panaceas that turned into diminishing returns quite fast.

Seriously though if u think the implications of AI can be boiled to LLM cult hype you are seriously shortsighted.

It's weird since u have a public key on your profile you must be someone seriously into tech. Why are so many skilled tech veterans so naively bearish on AI? Is it pride in the primacy of their skills being threatened by artificial intelligence? Is it an inability to gauge general trends outside their field of narrow expertise?