Yes and no. What needs to be factored in is, does the best / top talent forget? Or are they ones with more focus and memory? Does their marketability allow them to be more selective?

I think you see where this is going :)

Oh I'm well aware. How many downturns have you lived through?

It's rarely so easy when times get lean, but everyone has a different experience for sure!

Compromising in the short term to meet immediate needs isn't the same as forgetting. Once the tough times have passed, the memory rejuvenates and those who can do (i.e., leave).

Everyone leaves eventually, even if by retirement or death.

A great many people say they’ll leave ‘any day now’, or ‘after my next paycheck’ - but then somehow never do.

On the employer side, they care about output and costs, and the longer people stay (and keep producing) without need for raises or increased expenses, generally the lower their costs and the greater their output.

That might be true, but it's effectively a long-winded description of mediocrity. Mediocrity will only get you so far. Mediocrity means you're less competitive. Mediocrity means the only way to rise is if your competitor becomes even more mediocre. Mediocrity means to always live in fear that the "trick" isn't going to last much longer. And so on.

The point is, those environments, those cultures don't capture and retain top talent. Again, those who can...do (i.e., leave).

re: "Everybody leave..." Come on. You've got to do better than this. This isn't Reddit.

I’m pretty sure I don’t actually have to do better than this, actually.

And I’m going to have to quote Sturgeon’s law here. “90% of everything is crap”.

If 90% of employers are crap, (or 90% of jobs in an industry?), there is going to be a lot of competition for the 10% that aren’t with the crap employers or with the crap jobs. In conditions like we have today, many of the top 10% will even relax their standards (sliding closer to crap), since they just need to beat their competition not be perfect.

All they need to do to outrun the bear is run faster than the next guy, not be the fastest in the world.

So not everyone is going to get one of those nice ones, pretty much by definition no?

I wish you luck with finding one, and making the move if your current employer sucks.

Many won’t, for valid reasons. And employers are counting on that. For valid reasons (even if we all hate it).

That is my observation.