There's a program on NPR called "How I Built This". Every single episode I've listened to admits that luck had a huge part. Sure, they had to be persistent, but there's no denying luck played a big role.

https://www.npr.org/series/490248027/how-i-built-this

Lmao the Taleb thread is gold as he devolves into an Elon Musk level of maturity with the trolls while chiding Elon.

I think he is partially correct in that extreme risk taking is necessary to achieve extreme success, but I can't think of anyone mostly self-made in the Forbes top 50 who you couldn't argue is far above average intelligence, business acumen, or some skill relevant to their wealth. Risk makes up the difference. E.g. Musk might be top 5% in early education/opportunity, top 5% in intelligence, top 5% in business vision, and top 2% in work ethic, but it's the top 0.01% in risk appetite that results in him not being worth a few million (or wherever 0.05 * 0.05 * 0.05 * 0.02 ranks you in society), but the richest man alive.

Half the rich are rich because they were born rich. Maybe they were hard working embryos.

But one swimmer worked really hard to beat out the other billions.

Lost a few IQ points trying to even understand that (X?)(tweet?)