I was also initially thinking that. But I’m skeptical it’s a lone wolf. “A man in his 40s” is literally the type of people Yakuza coerce and blackmail to do their dirty deeds. Maybe that guy owed them money as well.

Might seem weird at first, but Yakuza gain nothing at hitting high profile people. Established groups already have plenty access to politicians, and small potatoes won't benefit from the chaos and extra scrutiny that will come out of this.

It's just bad business all around.

agreed, big Yakuza groups like the yamaguchi-gumi have public office buildings and operate fairly openly. Heck I've heard of members going to local school fairs with booths. It's a bit different than what we in the west think of as a crime organization.

there's a half-decent documentary about it on Netflix. I take it with a pinch of salt, as a lot of the doc was presented by Yakuza themselves, but the impression I got was that they're more like shady business consultants that probably have something dodgy going on behind the scenes

they're only allowed to continue to exist because of Japan's laws on cultural conservation

Interesting. The traditional take is: they answer needs that can’t be solved legally and enter business areas that have more risks than returns for normal people.

It’s familiar when looking at the prohibition period in the US for instance, where the mafia basically became an alcohol distribution network the day it was prohibited. Same in Japan: there’s laws on sex work, drugs, minor labor, gambling, money laundering, etc.

Yakuza groups will look at these laws and find the niches where regular businesses would be navigating minefields and blow up a thousand times, or where people will pay money for services only the yakuza can offer, and eventually abuse loopholes where they can take the money with low risk of anyone going after them.

Also the History of Japan podcast by Isaac Meyer has a good episode on the Yakuza, and several other episodes document how they have been involved with a lot of Japanese history.

interestingly, they seem to have a similar origin story to the mafia, in that they were originally law enforcers

Many assassinations of political figures are done by radicalized and unstable lone wolves.

I don't see any grounds to expect this one to be unique, even though the possibility can't be excluded.

Pro-tip: If a high-level politician owes you money... don't kill them. Get them to do your bidding.

Frustration from impotent politics could be strong in society. With influence of mass/social media, that infect us with fear you can find many reasons.

Also someone once severed his finger and mailed it to Abe, because because he didn’t visit Yasukuni shrine (where several war criminals are enshrined) one year. The Japanese far-right are … peculiar.