Interest rates have changed how easy money is, now unit economics has to work and the blitzscale and monopolize model doesn't have the capital to fuel itself
That's why classic blue chips are up and all the creative accounting, exotic pricing, complex funny money stuff is crashing hard. Anything that's not super easy to understand is doing terrible.
Look at who's up over the past 6 months. Johnson & Johnson, Kellogg's, Coca Cola, Coors, General Mills, Campbell Soup, Eli Lilly - companies with solid conventional reliable products and not a bunch of adventurous moon shots. Even PayPal, which is normally a pretty "safe" tech company is -60% YTD.
With the yield on the 10 year being at 2.75% I think it's fair to say this is much less about interest rates and much more about public market sentiment. Rates today are still lower than they were in say 2013 or 2018 and much lower than they were pre-GFC.
If public markets refuse to value unprofitable tech companies as highly as they did over the last several years then that puts more pressure on VCs to be more careful with their capital and prioritise companies making money today.
The thing is this isn't a sustainable trend because most smart tech entrepreneurs understand that startups that prioritise profitability will typically have their market share eaten by a competitor that prioritises growth at all costs.
Where I think some adjustment is probably healthy is for companies like Uber or Airbnb. These companies have a large enough market share that prioritising profitability probably wouldn't be a bad idea. My guess it that unless rates go much higher this will be a temporary set back, although the days of unprofitable tech IPOs are likely over. Going forward we'll probably see tech companies hold off on publicly listing until they've reach sufficient scale and profitability.
That's why classic blue chips are up and all the creative accounting, exotic pricing, complex funny money stuff is crashing hard. Anything that's not super easy to understand is doing terrible.
Look at who's up over the past 6 months. Johnson & Johnson, Kellogg's, Coca Cola, Coors, General Mills, Campbell Soup, Eli Lilly - companies with solid conventional reliable products and not a bunch of adventurous moon shots. Even PayPal, which is normally a pretty "safe" tech company is -60% YTD.