I encountered this a lot in the 2001 drawback. There were mini pockets though. Things would dry up. Then people would start interviewing again. The next shoe would drop. Rinse, repeat. It was more typical of smaller companies but wound up being across the entire industry.
I didn't wind up job hunting in 2008 so can't speak to that.
From the sound of it, my timing going back to school may just work out.
Though I’m kinda curious if the affect is outsized mostly in the SV, VC pumped side of the tech industry. I work for what technically could be considered a tech startup but is backed by companies with heavy domain experience and traditional investment firms. As far as I’ve heard we’re still in a hiring storm.
What we saw in 2001 was a network effect. The artificially pumped up companies died. Then the B2Bs that they were paying also struggled and died. And then other companies that relied on those B2Bs had trouble.
You're right that it will start with the obvious candidates, but we'll see if it goes on long/bad enough to have a broader impact.
I would hope that a number of those companies are well embedded and experienced to weather a tech crash/recession. I mean I know MS has had to have seen their share.
I was laid off in early 2009 during the Great Recession. I figured instead of competing with a bunch of people getting laid off I might as well go back to school and spend the next two years finishing up my degree and ride it out a bit.
Didn't regret that decision. Although tuition has gotten totally ridiculous. Do it the cheapest way you can, like a public in-state school or something (I did that and it was still pretty expensive).
I didn't wind up job hunting in 2008 so can't speak to that.