While you are right that it is from 50 years earlier than stated, it seems like a solid study. No, it's not actually "life expectancy", but I was impressed on how well designed it was. It makes for sobering reading, but the conclusion is actually positive: with only six hours of direct experience training, they could teach people how to make a safe 180 degree turn with a high percentage of success.
They explain the choice of the Bonanza, saying it was the most complex plane that a non-professional pilot could be expected to fly. The emphasis of the study was that simple training could save lives, and thus they wanted a high bar. "In sort, the assumption was made that if the subjects, none of whom had soloed a Bonanza, could master the technique in this airplane, they could master it in any single-engine airplane under 3,000 pounds gross weight."
And it's not quite true that the pilots had zero instrument time at the time of test. The first lesson included a very small amount of time to familiarize themselves with the instruments, and were given a second try if they lost control within only a few seconds. How much of a difference this is from the current 3 hours, and how far short of the recommended 6, seems worthy of discussion and likely a more modern study.
It is, provided that context is given when statistics from the paper are mentioned...which rarely happens.
To fly a Bonanza you have to have a private pilot's license, a high performance endorsement (required to fly anything with HP > 200), and a complex endorsement (required to fly anything with a constant speed prop, flaps, and retractable gear). This takes some time...and good luck getting insurance coverage (the real factor in what you do/don't fly) if you don't have an instrument ticket.
Furthermore there's a world of difference between zero or a few minutes of instrument experience and three hours. I don't have any study to back this up but I'm a pilot and can tell you from experience that the first time you go on full instruments it's sheer sensory overload. Three hours doesn't prepare you to do a decoupled IFR approach or anything, but it give you enough to do a 180.
Here's another important factor about the study that never gets mentioned: in the study the attitude indicator (artificial horizon), heading indicator, and vertical speed indicator were covered, simulating a partial failure of the vacuum system as well as a partial failure of the pitot/static system. No pilot is going to take off these instrument in failure, and should they fail in flight most pilots are getting down, now. I know I would be heading to the nearest field if I saw partial failure of both instrument systems.
So instead of saying "VFR pilots are toast in 178 seconds if they go into clouds" quotes should read more like, "if you happen to be Dr Sam Beckett and you find you've quantum lept into a Bonanza that has partial instrument system failures and you've flown into a cloud, you better hope Al can jump your ass back out within three minutes."
Three hours doesn't prepare you to do a decoupled IFR approach or anything, but it give you enough to do a 180.
'Most noninstrument pilots can be placed in one of the three following categories: (1) the noninstrument pilot who knows he could not fly instruments and takes every precaution to avoid instrument weather; (2) the noninstrument pilot who "knows" he could not fly instruments, takes every precaution to avoid instrument weather, but believes his knowledge and experience would enable him, if caught, to fly out of instrument weather; (3) the noninstrument pilot who believes, primarily through ignorance of the problems involved, he could fly through instrument weather.'
Are you instrument rated? Have you taken further training beyond the requirements? What's your confidence that you could successfully perform a 180 degree turn out of cloud in the plane that you fly the most? Would you keep your hands on the controls or not?
in the study the attitude indicator (artificial horizon), heading indicator, and vertical speed indicator were covered, simulating a partial failure of the vacuum system as well as a partial failure of the pitot/static system.
Again, I think this makes sense in the context of the study. The goal wasn't to simulate failure, rather because those were (at least at the time) not required to be installed.
The interesting part to me about the study (I'm not a pilot, but have played with simulators such as XPlane and probably plan to get a license some day when I can afford the time and expense) is that none of the test pilots were able to perform a life saving maneuver when starting, and after 6 hours of direct training all were able to. And yet, oddly, this isn't (to my knowledge) part of the current pilot training. Why not?
Training for a PPL currently requires 3.0 hours of instrument time, including maneuvers like climbs, descents, and turn to a heading. It also requires unusual attitude recovery, a drill where you cover your eyes and the instructor puts the plane at a cockeyed angle and you have to recover using only instruments. You must successfully perform these maneuvers in order to pass your FAA checkride.
Basically in order to get your PPL you have to not just be able to turn a 180 on instruments, but demonstrate some level of precision in other maneuvers...so I think that while the study demands six hours, the FAA has determined that the job can be done in three.
As to your questions for me: I'm not instrument rated. I've taken about two hours of instruction on instruments beyond the required 3.0, most of that time was on the flight were I got my high performance endorsement...in a Bonanza, coincidentally. I'm confident I could do an instrument-only 180 in the Piper Cherokee I fly most frequently because I've recently done instrument work in a more challenging aircraft. A month from now with no further instrument work I'd be significantly less confident.
Hands off the yoke? Probably not all the way, but I've been trained to keep a very light touch as anything more, at least in cruise flight, means you need to check your power/pitch settings (eg throttle/trim).
The completely "hands off" (the yoke) startled me. They concluded that this was the safest approach to teach: all turns with rudder, and a predetermined trim and power. Post instruction, they allowed pilots to try their own approach, and say that the two who tried to control oscillations with the yoke "realized almost at once [that this resulted in more extreme oscillations] and both subjects immediately released the yoke and continued through the remainder of the steps with 'Hands Off'."
Having just read Langewiesche's Stick and Rudder, with the emphasis that all turns should always be coordinated, I found this very surprising. The study suggested that the instructor use this explanation: "Bear in mind that this whole procedure is a 'gimmick' designed to save your life. If it is easier and safer for us to make a 'sloppy' turn in order to get the job done, then that is the best way under the circumstances."
You're welcome. I'm like most pilots, my favorite subject is flying. There's an old joke: how do you know if there's a pilot in the room? Because he'll tell you.
You know, the hands off 180 definitely something I'm going to try next time I'm up with a CFI/I. Also if you get the opportunity in this life to learn to fly, do it. It's expensive as hell but it's also a very rewarding and fun challenge and is a great way to travel.
http://www.humanfactors.uiuc.edu/Reports&PapersPDFs/Jour...
While you are right that it is from 50 years earlier than stated, it seems like a solid study. No, it's not actually "life expectancy", but I was impressed on how well designed it was. It makes for sobering reading, but the conclusion is actually positive: with only six hours of direct experience training, they could teach people how to make a safe 180 degree turn with a high percentage of success.
They explain the choice of the Bonanza, saying it was the most complex plane that a non-professional pilot could be expected to fly. The emphasis of the study was that simple training could save lives, and thus they wanted a high bar. "In sort, the assumption was made that if the subjects, none of whom had soloed a Bonanza, could master the technique in this airplane, they could master it in any single-engine airplane under 3,000 pounds gross weight."
And it's not quite true that the pilots had zero instrument time at the time of test. The first lesson included a very small amount of time to familiarize themselves with the instruments, and were given a second try if they lost control within only a few seconds. How much of a difference this is from the current 3 hours, and how far short of the recommended 6, seems worthy of discussion and likely a more modern study.