> "Conventional biostatistical analysis indicates that the probability of this sequence randomly being present in a 30,000-nucleotide viral genome is 3.21×10^−11".
This is just going to feed more conspiracy theory nutters.
First, a 1 in a 100 billion chance is absolutely nothing. There have been hundreds of millions of infections in humans, each representing billions upon billions of replications of the virus. Every replication carries the chance of mutation. Given that,
Second, mutations, whether random or not, are subject to selective pressure and incremental progress. A mutation that moves a sequence just slightly in the right direction, coding for a slightly different but close protein, will be selected for. Basically, evolution optimizes some structures (and therefore sequences) by hill climbing, accepting mutations that improve fitness and discarding mutations that don't. It doesn't roll all the dice at once and start over every time.
This article is of course based on an early sequence of SARSCov2, from before the pandemic spread.
Which means you didn't even begin to understand the question before spouting off, and everything you say on this subject can be disregarded. Do better.
Which apparently had never replicated before and thus was not subject to evolution...? My point was just to illustrate how many trillions of replications happen for viruses in the wild. 100 billion is absolutely nothing for biology.
The snide ad hominem that makes up the rest of your comment doesn't belong here. If you had just left it out, this would be a conversation and not an unnecessary source of anger and stress.
You came straight out the gate with "conspiracy nutters", then typed two paragraphs of misleading nonsense which did nothing to further the conversation.
This isn't a dialogue, this is me tagging you for other's sake as someone to ignore on this subject. Which is an important subject.
> You came straight out the gate with "conspiracy nutters"
I stand by everything I wrote. It will definitely feed the conspiracy theory people. I was on r/conspiracy last night and saw a link to a similar article that had identified the stop sequence of the Moderna vaccine, part of the non-protein-coding RNA, as a patented sequence. Well, of course the stop sequence could be patented. It's non-coding DNA. The comments were filled with totally bizarre ranting by people who literally had no understanding.
> two paragraphs of misleading nonsense
Wonderful dynamic here. If you want to actually engage with the ideas I wrote above, please do, but I'd rather assert that the entirety of what you have written here is subtractive and unhelpful. And you're literally and by your own omission not trying to "further the conversation" but stamp it out and have literally zero constructive dialog to offer other than "this person is crazy."
> This isn't a dialogue
So good, please don't continue to reply then. There's [-] for you to click on. You're welcome to downvote. It'll be less effort than firing off half-cocked, completely misunderstanding what I wrote, and creating a stinky atmosphere which devalues all of HN.
This is just going to feed more conspiracy theory nutters.
First, a 1 in a 100 billion chance is absolutely nothing. There have been hundreds of millions of infections in humans, each representing billions upon billions of replications of the virus. Every replication carries the chance of mutation. Given that,
Second, mutations, whether random or not, are subject to selective pressure and incremental progress. A mutation that moves a sequence just slightly in the right direction, coding for a slightly different but close protein, will be selected for. Basically, evolution optimizes some structures (and therefore sequences) by hill climbing, accepting mutations that improve fitness and discarding mutations that don't. It doesn't roll all the dice at once and start over every time.