An n of 1 has infinite variance. The relevant rarity, though is not the database, but rather "in the universe of viral sequences.
The database biases for sequences that we've sequences, so at best you can give a really shitty estimate.
Fwiw I believe the story that this was a stack overflow copy-paste operation from the moderna sequence, but I can only ever call this a strong belief[0], with no numbers behind it, unless someone comes forward and admits having done it.
[0] why strong? Because it follows the scientific method. If the hypothesis is that it's a lab leak, then your prediction is that existing sequences would bleed through. A bit crazy that we only found this now, hell I could have done this blast search years ago, but it is what you would expect to find.
Zero other exact matches, in the database.
An n of 1 has infinite variance. The relevant rarity, though is not the database, but rather "in the universe of viral sequences. The database biases for sequences that we've sequences, so at best you can give a really shitty estimate.
Fwiw I believe the story that this was a stack overflow copy-paste operation from the moderna sequence, but I can only ever call this a strong belief[0], with no numbers behind it, unless someone comes forward and admits having done it.
[0] why strong? Because it follows the scientific method. If the hypothesis is that it's a lab leak, then your prediction is that existing sequences would bleed through. A bit crazy that we only found this now, hell I could have done this blast search years ago, but it is what you would expect to find.