It would be easier to dismiss online commenters as "armchair" if the experts at the wheel, with all the data, the models, and the PhDs at their command, were making more accurate predictions than them.
I think that consensus is very fractured, but setting that aside -- has the "it's transitory" consensus made any concrete predictions? Have they been holding up so far?
I just look at housing prices as the input to a low pass filter with a 10-year pole, whose output is shelter costs, and I see the input is up tens of percent and the output is up 4ish percent, and that is enough to tell me we'll have a major inflation driver for ten years. Larry Summers says the same thing, so I'm pretty confident in my own predictions.
