I think the easy defense here is “do you really think my client would have known the price of those stocks would go up after that pivot?”

IANAL but I think the law is about trading - not profiteering. Trading public stocks based on material non-public information is a crime even if you don’t know _what_ will happen to the stock or you predict wrong. You literally cannot lawfully trade the stock no matter your expectation of how the news will be received. In fact I would say any large market reaction after the news breaks means the information was “material.”

I hope these people get a proper slap on the wrists and a really high fine like $1000