I haven’t fully read the article however even FB didn’t know at the time of the potential nor were they monetizing motile. Now mobile has become the cornerstone of the business. Facebook stock dropped by over half soon after the IPO. Not far from $33B. Before it began its rapid acceleration with mobile beats again and again. And now Instagram revenue being a good chunk for 4 years and changing the narrative of the entire company from the far bleaker one it would have if they didn’t own Instagram.
Even now there’s a big question mark on the future of Whatsapp and FB Messenger. Both have over 1.5B users but bring in negligible money. If one can monetize each user at $2-3 and the other a bit more, FB gets $10B+ more in revenue and more growth and diversified income over this decade.
That proves the point to me too. No one can have more than a vague idea on what revenue and profit FBM, Whatsapp, and any potential acquisition will have in 2025. Or if Facebook launches a cloud platform (doubtful) or a Google Adsense alternative (since it hasn’t happened by now I doubt it but I used to be convinced this would happen for years).
One final example is the Portal. They aren’t going to move the needle any direction right now, but they were considered a bust before corona. Now they are selling well and have potential for expansion. I’m even surprised at their potential. I didn’t know they could do FBM and Whatsapp group chat. Beats out any other static home system. I just bought a pair for my grandmother and my self. Wouldn’t have done it until its fortunes turned around this year and I knew more about it.
I think there was some validity at the time this article was written, but things changed a lot in the decade that followed. It also shows why growth based valuations are difficult.
The more important point (in addition to your point I mean) is that DHH is not in any particular position vs. a random smart internet person to come up with these thoughts. But when people read what he says (similar to when people read what any notable or internet celeb thinks (say PG as one example)) is becomes 100x more believable (to some people) important or noteworthy.
I see this now with Bill Gates opining about covid (on CNN on what appears to be a regular basis). Now yes Bill has done work with vaccines and has a great deal to say but the main reason CNN puts him on (as opposed to others) is that he is Bill Gates the Billionaire and somehow they feel his take on things is more significant. Or in reality it will get people to watch CNN so they can sell advertising. He is not the most important or credible person in these areas (the people with actual education and working experience who Bill talks to are, right?) but he is presented on TV as being all knowing about solving the problems (which he could be correct about).
Don’t get me wrong. I admire any company that decides to be a “lifestyle business” - a profitable private company that seems to do right by their employees.
I listen to the ReWork podcast and he is the opposite of the HN VC Dundee hype. I also take his side in the Hey controversy.
But, when he calls himself an expert in the roll that Big Tech plays in society in front of Congress - my eyes roll.
Do you think a bigger problem is the press and possibly hype among groups of people labeling any person some sort of oracle? After coronavirus hit, there were claims of “oracles”. Same with any other big event.
Not going to get into DHH specific issues that you are referencing which I don’t disagree with lol.
Even now there’s a big question mark on the future of Whatsapp and FB Messenger. Both have over 1.5B users but bring in negligible money. If one can monetize each user at $2-3 and the other a bit more, FB gets $10B+ more in revenue and more growth and diversified income over this decade.
That proves the point to me too. No one can have more than a vague idea on what revenue and profit FBM, Whatsapp, and any potential acquisition will have in 2025. Or if Facebook launches a cloud platform (doubtful) or a Google Adsense alternative (since it hasn’t happened by now I doubt it but I used to be convinced this would happen for years).
One final example is the Portal. They aren’t going to move the needle any direction right now, but they were considered a bust before corona. Now they are selling well and have potential for expansion. I’m even surprised at their potential. I didn’t know they could do FBM and Whatsapp group chat. Beats out any other static home system. I just bought a pair for my grandmother and my self. Wouldn’t have done it until its fortunes turned around this year and I knew more about it.