A Camry costs around $24,000. $16,000 worth of gas, at $2.4 per gallon, times the EPA 34mpg combined gas mileage of the 2020 Camry, is good for over 200,000 miles. And that's assuming that the power to charge your car is completely free--it isn't, even though it's less than the price of gas on a per-mile basis.
Around $24k, good luck finding one of those on the lot. At toyota.com the Camry pictured is $35,555.
Over 200k miles How much will you spend on brake pads? Brake Discs? Gas? How about the scheduled 40 Oil changes?
How about things outside of the regular maintenance? Belts? Catalytic converts? Timing chain? Engine mounts? Head gaskets? Spark plugs? Clutch?
How many miles will you burn driving to/from gas stations?
How much of your time worth finding, using, and returning from gas stations? Do you really want to visit a smelly gas station covered with signs about the cancer it causes (in California anyways)?
Sure a Tesla over 200k miles will burn a fair amount of power around 50,000 kwh (75 kwh per 300 miles or so). But the other consumables are few. Sure wipers, tires (replacement and rotation), cabin filters, windshield fluid, etc. But generally the electric motors have few parts, are extremely reliable, and don't require any regularly scheduled maintenance.
I've had 2 Subarus and a low end Acura Integra. And most maintenance I've had (except tires/and wipers) was for something that didn't exist on an electric car. Timing chains, spark plugs, oil changes, head gasket, catalytic converter, engine mounts, clutch, etc.
And the Model 3 can run up to almost $60k so let’s be fair and talk about the base model for each, okay? We’re talking about a price difference of $16,000 over a $24,000 car, and if you think a Toyota of all brands is going to require $16,000 worth of maintenance more than the Model 3, I would really like to know what that number is based upon.
So ignore performance, leather, safety, nav, 15" screen, and related improvements? Doesn't seem fair, the model 3 is a crazy more capable car, but ok. Maybe at least the hybrid ($28,430)? Or at least add some of the safety stuff like blind spot monitoring and cross-traffic alert? Keyless? Upgraded backup camera? v6 to get the 0-60 close to the Tesla?
Also ignoring the federal, state, PG&E, and similar incentives?
Even ignoring all the above I think the Tesla is still cheaper to own.
AAA claims that the average car costs $0.592 per mile. For above mentioned 200,000 miles that's $118k. Not sure there's a more "average" car than a camry. No oil changes, brake changes, gas, engine mounts, timing chain, belts, etc is going to significantly decrease that number for the Tesla. Sure electricity isn't free, but it is way cheaper than gas. There's a target I visit often in my town that allows 2 hours of free charging per visit, and where I work charging cost $10 per month. I could easily spend less than $200 per year for the Telsa electricity. Since June 2019 I've spent a total of $30.00 (5 visits) at superchargers despite numerous road trips to Stanford, Reno, SF, Napa, Tahoe, Downieville, etc.
Additionally it's looking like Tesla's last a fair bit longer than the equivalent ICE car. So at 200k miles you could just keep the model 3, or sell it for a non-trivial amount of money. Already hearing reports of Model S's making it to 1M km and the taxi service is switching to model 3's. Should have an ideal how well the model 3 does near 1M km soon.
So the $40k model 3 lost 5.5% after 1 year ($2,200). Presumably the camry is worse than the honda fit (#5 on the list). So it lost at least $3,000 in value in the first year. Amusingly the worst depreciation numbers are many of the Tesla competition (BMW, Audi, Jaguar, and Volvo).
So yes, I think keeping a Tesla for 200k miles will be cheaper than a Camry. More fun to drive, safer, and cheaper. Doubly so if you count wasting an hour or two on weekend for an oil change.... 40 times.
Having had ICE cars over 10 years old and over 100k miles I can say first hand that the maintenance costs can add up quickly.
