Ah what the heck, may record mine for posterity as well. Most things rather bleak, still hope for some positives surprising me.
Tech:
1. Industrialization and commodification of deep learning.
2. No AGI. Substantial progress in understanding human nervous system though.
3. The the tech landscape solidifies the split between privacy-conscious and pricey 'ware and the mass market 'ware paid for with surveillance.
4. Network pollution caused by 5G and/or similar. Average person will have their home littered with random appliance transmitters they have no awareness about.
5. Actually controlling what your computers do will be a more esoteric and in-demand skill. CS departments will correct towards the pre-1980s mode when you were expected to actually learn most of the stuff at the university.
6. The push for tech regulation will sunset the unicorn era. Tech giants start to look more like telco giants, which still means people work for them for big money and less luster.
Geopolitics:
1. China will be an ideological superpower, Cold War or Age of Imperialism style, with a sizeable sphere of influence on most of continents, and many ideological adherents to the "safety and order by total surveillance" brand of totalitarianism in the West. There will be again two recognizable world systems, with one centered in the US (or possibly EU, if many things change) and the other in China. This can include new centers of manufacturing linked to the former.
2. There will be little organized response of the Western world to this, barring significant new popular movements in the US/EU. Non-US NATO countries will be mostly left to their own devices, with some fear of criticizing China by private citizens.
3. Russia will be moving towards becoming a client state of China, possibly with subtle hints of warlord decentralization.
4. The populist camp in the West, depending on the country, will be either flirting with China or evolve towards a kind of McCarthyism (some hints of that in the GOP nowadays). The establishment camp will be battered by unpopular but kinda necessary policies around pension reform, climate change etc. It's possible that a new camp based on the likes of Greens and Pirates, or something unquestionably leftist will gain viability.
5. Overall, there will be a global rethinking of nation state with stress on the "cyber" sovereignty. More world fragmentation in terms of tech, government policy.
6. On the other hand, political positions will be more global and homogenized, and English-speaking.
7. Climate change will incur a heavy cost, catastrophic in specific places, with little global response, more blame-shifting and elaborate denial.
8. With the increasing role of governments there will be visible progress in global regulation of finance.
Tech:
1. Industrialization and commodification of deep learning.
2. No AGI. Substantial progress in understanding human nervous system though.
3. The the tech landscape solidifies the split between privacy-conscious and pricey 'ware and the mass market 'ware paid for with surveillance.
4. Network pollution caused by 5G and/or similar. Average person will have their home littered with random appliance transmitters they have no awareness about.
5. Actually controlling what your computers do will be a more esoteric and in-demand skill. CS departments will correct towards the pre-1980s mode when you were expected to actually learn most of the stuff at the university.
6. The push for tech regulation will sunset the unicorn era. Tech giants start to look more like telco giants, which still means people work for them for big money and less luster.
Geopolitics:
1. China will be an ideological superpower, Cold War or Age of Imperialism style, with a sizeable sphere of influence on most of continents, and many ideological adherents to the "safety and order by total surveillance" brand of totalitarianism in the West. There will be again two recognizable world systems, with one centered in the US (or possibly EU, if many things change) and the other in China. This can include new centers of manufacturing linked to the former.
2. There will be little organized response of the Western world to this, barring significant new popular movements in the US/EU. Non-US NATO countries will be mostly left to their own devices, with some fear of criticizing China by private citizens.
3. Russia will be moving towards becoming a client state of China, possibly with subtle hints of warlord decentralization.
4. The populist camp in the West, depending on the country, will be either flirting with China or evolve towards a kind of McCarthyism (some hints of that in the GOP nowadays). The establishment camp will be battered by unpopular but kinda necessary policies around pension reform, climate change etc. It's possible that a new camp based on the likes of Greens and Pirates, or something unquestionably leftist will gain viability.
5. Overall, there will be a global rethinking of nation state with stress on the "cyber" sovereignty. More world fragmentation in terms of tech, government policy.
6. On the other hand, political positions will be more global and homogenized, and English-speaking.
7. Climate change will incur a heavy cost, catastrophic in specific places, with little global response, more blame-shifting and elaborate denial.
8. With the increasing role of governments there will be visible progress in global regulation of finance.