First, I remember this exact same argument during the post .com collapse circa 2001/2002: "Everything is getting offshored to India, and all good developer salaries with it!" Software developer salaries have only accelerated since that time.
Second, I think that in 2020 the following things will still be true about software that are true today, and are a major reason for such high salaries:
2. Despite #1, there will still be an order of magnitude or more difference between the best and average programmers.
3. The "winner take all" nature of markets will only increase.
If #1, #2 and #3 remain true, it means that capital will still be willing to make large bets to try to be on the "winning horse" because the returns will be so outsized, which means many businesses will be willing to overpay for programmers because everyone wants the best programmers but it will still be difficult to know exactly who those "best" programmers are.
First, I remember this exact same argument during the post .com collapse circa 2001/2002: "Everything is getting offshored to India, and all good developer salaries with it!" Software developer salaries have only accelerated since that time.
Second, I think that in 2020 the following things will still be true about software that are true today, and are a major reason for such high salaries:
1. Software productivity will still be essentially un-measurable: https://martinfowler.com/bliki/CannotMeasureProductivity.htm....
2. Despite #1, there will still be an order of magnitude or more difference between the best and average programmers.
3. The "winner take all" nature of markets will only increase.
If #1, #2 and #3 remain true, it means that capital will still be willing to make large bets to try to be on the "winning horse" because the returns will be so outsized, which means many businesses will be willing to overpay for programmers because everyone wants the best programmers but it will still be difficult to know exactly who those "best" programmers are.