It doesn't matter if there are SOME self-driving cars on the road in 2030, or if they're level 4 or level 5. [1]
What matters is if they're economically feasible by 2030, and say have 100M or 1B customers. Is Waymo bigger than what Google search is now, or another self-driving company bigger than Facebook?
My answer is no for consumer applications, e.g. rideshare. I wrote in this thread:
Self-driving cars won't impact the average consumer in the next 10 years. It will continue to be cheaper to operate rideshares with human drivers in most parts of the world and most terrains/climates. It will make sense for commercial applications though.
[1] There are people in this thread arguing that this has already been achieved. I don't agree, but if the threshold is one car demonstrating one thing, then meh I might not argue.
What matters is if they're economically feasible by 2030, and say have 100M or 1B customers. Is Waymo bigger than what Google search is now, or another self-driving company bigger than Facebook?
My answer is no for consumer applications, e.g. rideshare. I wrote in this thread:
Self-driving cars won't impact the average consumer in the next 10 years. It will continue to be cheaper to operate rideshares with human drivers in most parts of the world and most terrains/climates. It will make sense for commercial applications though.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21942100
[1] There are people in this thread arguing that this has already been achieved. I don't agree, but if the threshold is one car demonstrating one thing, then meh I might not argue.