> In Russia Putin will retire in 2024 and transition to the new leadership will be soft and non-violent. Likely this will mean some positive changes in internal and foreign policy.

I doubt that. Just because the constitution says Putin must retire in 2024 doesn't mean that he will. He could change the constitution to stay in power longer, outright ignore it, or transition into a different official role but still wield the power: consider the swapping trick he did with Medvedev a decade ago. Furthermore, the corruption in Russia has been running so deep and so long that any successor is going to have a large degree of ideological similarity with and loyalty to Putin--everyone who hasn't has been purged and will be disqualified from any attempted succession race.

Constitution will be respected: Russian elites would consider it too dangerous to violate and until now have always followed the letter of law (see the annexation of Crimea). The change of it is possible but only to a stricter rule of two terms (Putin hinted at this possibility recently). The successor will be loyal not to Putin personally, but to their mutual agreement, which will be fulfilled. He or she will not necessarily have the same views - there’s a precedent of such transition and it will likely be used in 2024. Moreover, it will be more convenient for everyone to put there a centrist or a technocrat with some political weight (former governor or member of parliament, like Dumin or Matvienko). Corruption won’t be a significant factor here, at least no more than it is in US primaries.