* Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple will have roughly the same dominant positions.
* Bitcoin will play roughly the same role it plays today (store of value, more like gold than money, similar mkt cap)
* Machine learning continues to grow in usage and capability, but there will be no "revolution" in AI.
* Nobody on Mars
* No serious alternatives to advertisements will emerge for industries where ads have traditionally driven profits.
* Climate change is not adequately addressed, but by the end of the decade it is widely recognized as an existential threat (not just amongst wealthy people as is the case today).
* Vim + tmux + make is still the best "IDE" ;)
Things I believe will change:
* There will a tech company worth >$100B delivering new, completely bogus healthcare through a smartphone.
* Huge advances in astronomy, physical chemistry, biotech, and computational physics driven by better data processing software. No big advances in any theoretical field.
* Tech illiteracy of young people becomes an economic
problem, with political debates and movements centered around fixing the "tech education gap" between people born after 2000 and everyone else.
* Cryptocurrency goes mainstream in super boring ways. Banks probably use it for transfers and various apps use it for payments, especially in China.
I don't like this misuse of the word IDE. The entire point of the word is in the I. Combining multiple independent tools is the opposite of an integrated development environment. It's just a regular development environment.
I don't have a concrete prediction, but I can see it being a problem that lots of young people use locked down phones rather than an open-ended device (which usually has a keyboard and mouse/touchpad).
Maybe in 10 years laptops will have transformed into tablets, with the same locked down app stores, and a keyboard and mouse will seem like an ancient relic. (I'm not sure if another input device will come along in 10 years, the way touch did with the iPhone).
That seems too negative though. I think there could just as likely be a big new platform that means more young people are creating software than ever.
Here's a concrete prediction: the tech stack may be stratified by age. That is, Gen X-ers will know C, C++, and Python; millenials will know JS, Python, and perhaps Rust; and millenial's children will be creative with something even higher up the stack.
I'm just relaying what my gf that teaches young people told me.
Some even told her that they'd prefer "typing" essays on a mobile phone, because their ability to use real keyboard is low. To me it's baffling, but I didn't grow up with a smartphone.
* Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple will have roughly the same dominant positions.
* Bitcoin will play roughly the same role it plays today (store of value, more like gold than money, similar mkt cap) * Machine learning continues to grow in usage and capability, but there will be no "revolution" in AI.
* Nobody on Mars
* No serious alternatives to advertisements will emerge for industries where ads have traditionally driven profits.
* Climate change is not adequately addressed, but by the end of the decade it is widely recognized as an existential threat (not just amongst wealthy people as is the case today).
* Vim + tmux + make is still the best "IDE" ;)
Things I believe will change:
* There will a tech company worth >$100B delivering new, completely bogus healthcare through a smartphone.
* Huge advances in astronomy, physical chemistry, biotech, and computational physics driven by better data processing software. No big advances in any theoretical field.
* Tech illiteracy of young people becomes an economic problem, with political debates and movements centered around fixing the "tech education gap" between people born after 2000 and everyone else.
* Cryptocurrency goes mainstream in super boring ways. Banks probably use it for transfers and various apps use it for payments, especially in China.