I think car ownership might change to subscription service model vs. outright buying a car, but still mostly private vehicle "ownership" in 2030 outside of dense urban areas.
Maybe the avg. car ownership per household will drop dramatically, from ~2 to 1 or less, with the rise of ridesharing/public transit.
I'm skeptical about this. This past year we've seen two major car sharing services take a huge hit. ReachNow was suddenly shut down and Car2Go pulled out of the US. If you end up being right, the car sharing companies will have to go back to the drawing board to create a new business model.
> the car sharing companies will have to go back to the drawing board to create a new business model.
I'll bet on this. Either self-driving cars dramatically lowers the cost of operations. Or startups like Nomad Rides change the business model entirely. Micro-mobility via scooters / bikes might also be a valid reason here.
But the consumer desire for ride-share is there and it's unlikely to go anywhere.
> Micro-mobility via scooters / bikes might also be a valid reason here.
I think this is the winner for dense cities with mild winters.
During rush hour in many cities you're about as fast walking as you are driving. People barely walk though and cycling requires physical effort which makes it inconvenient enough for many people to prefer cars. Scooters fix these problems and get you there really fast, except they suck in winter, except again in a few years winters may not be that bad anymore. The only (practical, non-luxury) reason you might want a car then is transporting a lot of stuff. For those few situations, carsharing might be an acceptable solution.
Maybe the avg. car ownership per household will drop dramatically, from ~2 to 1 or less, with the rise of ridesharing/public transit.