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> you have a 0.0002% chance of being involved in a crash

0.0002% X 172 passengers -> 0.0334



Each passenger has a 0.0002% chance independently as the risk was measured per flight and not per person. Each person on a flight has an independent chance but the effect is to all passengers.

You can divide that way to yield the risk per passenger, but multiply back out to obtain the per flight amount which is what’s relevant given the group impact.




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