All I think when I see this is "this intelligence wasted on finance and ads."
Can you imagine human potential if it was somehow applied to crop harvesting efficiency, new medicines, etc?
Not everything has to be perfectly efficient but it just saddens me to see all these great minds doing what, adversarially harvesting margin from the works of others?
No doubt many of us agree with you, but this is not the kind of comment that should be stuck at the top of a thread, choking out more specific and interesting conversation.
Generic-indignant comments always get heavily upvoted, which is a failure mode of the upvoting system (and perhaps the human brain, who knows).
> Can you imagine human potential if it was somehow applied to crop harvesting efficiency, new medicines, etc?
We already have very efficient crop harvesting and Eli Lilly is nearly a $1 Trillion dollar company. Interestingly, the new medicine is designed to keep us from eating so many cheap calories (new weight loss drugs).
> Not everything has to be perfectly efficient but it just saddens me to see all these great minds doing what, adversarially harvesting margin from the works of others?
The traders and investors who work in this space also go to where they are need, aka where the big money is. So few of these folks are trading corn and soybeans, though some do, rather most are trading drug stocks, tech stocks, and recently sovereign debt related trading (e.g. things like gold and bonds). The focus is around the big questions of our time, like "Are AI investments going to pay off?", or "Is the US going to default/soft default?", and so on.
Deciding how a society allocates its resources, or places its bets, is an important function. Otherwise, you end up with planned economies by disconnected leaders, which often leads to massive failures and large social consequences. Unfortunately, the US is trending in that direction to some degree with it's giant fiscal deficits, tariffs, and tribal politics creeping into economic policy. Nevertheless, traders will weigh these outcomes in their trades, and you'll see a quick reflection from any major change in policy almost immediately, which is a helpful feedback mechanism. For example, the tariff tantrums caused by trump proposing 100%+ china tariffs where he crashed the markets last spring, leading to a moderation in policy.
I think the comment was a roundabout way of saying this is a clear market failure. There are more societally important things these people could be doing instead of shaving another ms off a transaction or finding minuscule option pricing inefficiencies. That the market is not correctly remunerating those options is the failure.
> For example, the tariff tantrums caused by trump proposing 100%+ china tariffs where he crashed the markets last spring, leading to a moderation in policy.
"Akshually traders are good bcuz they crash the market when the president does insane things" is not the own you think it is.
> this undervalues how financial engineering allows more ideas and companies to be funded
I think the comment is about the marginal utility of additional workers at Jane St over, perhaps, DE Shaw Research. The caliber and education of roughly the same kind of person might be applied to understanding drug mechanisms, or shaving off trading milliseconds.
Is the marginal benefit to the world greater if someone is advancing financial engineering? I don't think it's obvious that our increased complexity is, itself, yielding further increases in 'allowing more ideas and companies to be funded' except in the sense where already-wealthy people gain more discretionary income which they may decide to spend on their pet projects. Futures have existed for much longer than derivative markets; are we helping farmers more when we allow futures to be traded more quickly?
But I disagree that the limit is funding—it's simply a lack of concerted interest. We accept that we should spend tax money on rewarding certain financial activities, and we create a system that disproportionately rewards people who facilitate these activities. But we might restructure things so people are incentivized to do research instead of financial engineering.
I think the fundamental idea is that things of value need to be extracted or manufactured at some point and we're not set up to reward people studying new extractive tools or new manufacturing processes when those people could instead work on finance products.
I think these are totally different things. HFT firms and Hedge Funds are not "allowing more ideas to be funded". Finance in general can indeed be good but I think its much harder to argue for the net benefit of firms like Jane Street or Citadel.
It’s an important function, but the guys making these bets frequently pull down $10-$100M per year, each. That’s a huge toll to extract from the productive economy for playing this game.
And then there are the guys managing things like pensions, skimming a percentage every year, just because they happen to be locked into that position, meanwhile underperforming a basket of index funds. Just happily eating away at the retirement savings of thousands-millions.
This endless money-spinning & the larger monetary system is a big scam to steal from actual productive work. How is it fair to normal people that the whole system is rigged such that if they DON'T indulge in all this gambling (ignore the fact that most retail traders are on the sucker-end of the trade), they lose whatever wealth they've stored to inflation ?
Money is an IOU. It's not a secret that US central bank policy is to devalue those IOUs at a rate of 2% per year in order to artificially stimulate demand for production.
We can have different opinion on how much inflation is too much. But the universal consensus is that a little bit of inflation is good. It's ok if you think 2% too high. Maybe 1.25% is better.
But we cannot just dispute this basic economic model and thinking that 0 or negative inflation (which would cause the stop of investment), or no consensus(that would just cause more chaos) is better. That's just absurd
For decades before that policy, a policy even the Bank of Canada holds, inflation was crazy high. The 80s saw inflation, in Canada, briefly hit over 20%, and double digit inflation was a regular thing.
Everyone decided 2% would be a good rate to aim for, that more control was better, to prevent inflation from flying out of control.
Then some dude comes along and tries to spin it like it's a conspiracy to hurt people.
For some crops we have. But it would be nice to have more diversity, so that the cheapest food options wouldn't be just wheat and corn because they happen to be the crops that are most amenable to mechanized agriculture.
If you really dive into the mathematics of finance, you quickly realize that the edge is never "we're better at math than you", but a much more fundamental asymmetry in information/control.
Sometimes that's getting information a few seconds faster, sometimes a data source no one else has exploited, but more often than not its something that feels a bit more "unfair".
This is outside my domain, and I don’t know the details, but in many cases Jane street functions as a market maker, market makers have access to information they can exploit to skim from anyone that trades through them, especially retail investors who place market orders.
Pump and dump is a strategy that whales can use to bully smaller traders, not unlike how in poker the smaller your stack is in relation to the minimum bet, the easier it is for someone with a big stack to squeeze you out. This is possible for whales even when they don’t have access to the information that market makers have, and it’s not allowed on many regulated exchanges.
It’s like the reverse of the GameStop short squeeze, except instead of retail investors ganging up, propping up the price to liquidate institutional short positions, it’s an institution using its fat stacks to cause little crashes which they have opened short positions to exploit.
One arm of the firm creates a waves in the price, and the other arm rides the wave.
What you're describing isn't a pump and dump, but in any case what Jane Street did wasn't a pump and dump or what you're describing. It also had nothing to do with market making.
India's market trades options much, much more than the underlying stocks. This means that on one hand you can trade a lot of options without moving the market, and on the other you can move the market by trading comparatively few shares. Since options prices tend to be bounded by the price of the underlying, this is...a problem. For example you could buy shares to move the price up, sell calls, buy puts (aka a collar), then sell the shares to move the price back down so both calls and puts make money.
But it doesn't necessarily look like this is what Jane Street was doing. Instead they seem to have realized that stock and option prices already regularly diverged, and put the collars on to profit from corrections. In other words: arbitrage. Which, fair, can be functionally indistinguishable from market manipulation. But on paper it looks like they made prices better for everyday folks at the expense of the market makers and other institutions.
Matt Levine wrote a long Money Stuff column about this around the middle of last year.
Being a market maker doesn't provide any special information. I'm guessing someone misunderstood something like Level II quotes (https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/06/level2quote...) as being information that hedge funds / investment banks / pros have that retail traders don't... but it's just semi-public information that anyone can pay for access to.
Jane Street also isn't doing pump and dumps, they're not in crypto discord channels hyping some coin or running bot farms of twitter accounts to talk up some stock.
They run several different types of trading that might interact with other people attempting pump & dumps though, which could impact in either direction- plausibly they might do a momentum trade that follows the direction of movement or they might recognize a price discrepancy happening and trade against it.
More accurately, they have complex models pulling in many, many signals to inform trading, and I'm being a bit reductionist to categorize it as these two things.
What? “Opening short positions then pumping and dumping to trigger the shorts” doesn’t make any sense at all. You’re saying they opened a position that profited if the price went down then they bought to raise the price
You’ve never heard of this strategy before? If i tried to explain it, I would do a poor job, it’s happened a lot, enough that it is forbidden on most regulated exchanges.
In this case they buy slowly to avoid artificially propping up the price, then sell all at once to artificially drop the price, only momentarily. They don’t have to cause the entire price drop through selling everything they acquired, they just have to move the price down enough to trigger stop loss orders that they know about.
With this strategy they can accumulate assets while also taking profits on the shorts. It’s the retail investors who put in market orders or stop loss orders that get taken for a ride.
In their role as market maker they have all the information needed to minimize the risk of this strategy.
> Can you imagine human potential if it was somehow applied to crop harvesting efficiency, new medicines, etc?
If these sectors offered competitive salaries - sure, talent would flock to them. As a former chemist, I struggled to find a job that didn't pay scraps, no matter the industry - from big pharma to advanced materials. Eventually, I just gave up and went into the IT, which is 3x-10x better paid (at the very least).
We let the market dictate how society's resources are allocated. And we see, as a result, how the market is actually not at all interested in the satisfaction and well-being of the people in society.
I always wonder if people do not look for external reasons to avoid doing work or taking decisions themselves.
Most of the people I know do not spend their free time doing research into the satisfaction of society, and do not donate (even what they could!) to great causes. It is not the "market dictates" is "most of people dictate".
And still. I am writing this in an open-source browser, on an open-source operating system. The existence of this tools helps society no matter how you put it. So in fact, if you think of it, there are many people that do not "obey" the market. And this is only one way, there are others.
So maybe rather than "blame the market" be positive and tell us what way did you find to make a difference.
These people, who make purchasing decisons, also make them on behalf of someone's preferences, mixed with their own, to the extent they have a say. Like the market, government represents certain weighted subset of people. With the market, the people in the government are under influence just as much as anybody else. You can't really say that preferences flow a certain way, from government to business.
"Market" is a proxy for other things, and different people mean different things when they say it. So when we talk about the "market" wanting or doing something, we aren't always talking about the same thing. This is important to realize, so that we don't conflate separate concepts and talk past each other.
I wasn't really sure how to respond, it seemed obvious to me, so I put your question with the two comments into Claude. I genuinely think it gave a great response. I encourage you (or anybody) to try yourself next time, but here it is:
The second person was essentially unpacking the phrase "the market" to reveal who it actually represents. Here are the top 3 interpretations of their point:
1. The market isn't a neutral arbiter — it's a voting system where money is the vote. When we say "the market decides," we're really saying that people with more money have more say. A billionaire's preference for a luxury yacht counts for vastly more than a poor person's need for affordable housing. So "market outcomes" aren't some objective measure of what society wants — they reflect what wealthy people want.
2. The first person's critique is correct, but misdirected. By saying "the market" is indifferent to people's well-being, the first commenter was almost treating the market like an external, autonomous force. The second person is saying: it's not some mysterious system — it's just rich people's preferences given structural power. The problem isn't the abstraction called "the market"; the problem is inequality in who gets to participate meaningfully in it.
3. The language of "the market" obscures a political reality. Calling something a "market outcome" makes it sound natural, inevitable, and impersonal. But framing it as "rich people's preferences dominate resource allocation" makes it sound like what it actually is — a political and social choice about whose interests get prioritized. The second person is essentially calling out the ideological function of the word "market" as a way to launder what is really a power structure.
The three interpretations overlap, but they emphasize different things: the mechanics of how markets work, the validity of the first person's critique, and the rhetorical/political role of market language respectively.
Yes, it was clear that you wanted to refocus this as a moral problem of people. But that's irrelevant. The point of the guy above is that there is a system (the market) that creates certain incentives, and as a result, we have what we have. That's why I ask: what's your point? We still have all these problems.
So are you asking how to change it? I think that's pretty obvious once people understand it's a collective social choice - organize to change it. The point is "the market" is not some mysterious unreachable force.
For example, this comment https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47181837 is wrong; even if you had large amount of people acting like that person does, you would still likely have a system that doesn't work in the interest of society.
I'm no asking how to change it. And I don't think anyone has suggested that the market is some mysterious unreachable force. To be honest, at this point it's clear that you're being condescending and assuming people believe something foolish instead of trying to understand what they're actually saying.
There was a huge inflection point in basically everything around 1971. [1] That was US pulled out of Bretton Woods and the USD became completely unbacked by anything, enabling the government to 'print' infinite money. How can market forces be the one deciding anything when literally trillions of imaginary dollars keeps being dumped into it, in a highly prejudiced fashion, by the government and their preferred institutions?
At that point the historical correlations between money and basically everything, which had sustained for centuries - even though the industrial revolution, began completely breaking down, and infinitely began skyrocketing to levels never seen before, in the US at least.
>the market is actually not at all interested in the satisfaction and well-being of the people in society.
The biochem industry is extremely bad at creating things that increase the satisfaction and well-being of society; the vast majority of products are failures with few users. The reason tech companies make money is because they make things people actually want to use.
>The biochem industry is extremely bad at creating things that increase the satisfaction and well-being of society
I'd argue the "satisfaction" of society has been hijacked. We cannot even, as a society, understand the impact on medicine, nutrition, agriculture and the well-being we could harness from focusing on the long term, rather than seeking dopamine hits through screens.
I think this is the wrong way to think about it. In this case the "intelligent people who are wasted on finance and ads" are drawn to high-status, low-risk, well-paid jobs, with interesting problems to solve.
If you want to solve meaningful problems you need a different kind of intelligence; you need to be open to risk, have a lot of naivety, not status orientated, and a rare ability to see the forest among the trees (i.e. an interesting problem isn't necessarily a important one).
While true, another is that “crop harvesting efficiency” and medicine are both more a biology/chemistry problem which may not interest the same people so it’s unclear they’d even attract the same thing.
It’s also missing that advancements in one field, particularly computer science, computation, and AI creates significant infrastructure that can be applied to those tasks in never before seen ways.
And finally, physical problems evolve much more slowly and is more capital intensive and requires a lot more convincing of other people. Digital problems by comparison are more “shut up I’m right, here’s the code that does X”. It’s easier to validate, easier feedback resulting in quicker mastery, etc. Not saying it’s completely bulletproof in that way, but more true than in physical sciences these days. So just throwing more people at the problem may not necessarily yield results without correct funding which historically was provided by the government (hence the huge boom in the 60s) but as the low hanging fruit were picked and government became more dysfunctional, this slowed to a crawl.
For example, personally I probably could have ended up working on fusion research if I had more economic security growing up and it felt like the nuclear industry was booming instead of constantly underdeveloped (both fission and fusion). But instead I’ve worked with computers because I felt like it was a boom segment of the economy (and it has largely been while I’ve worked) and the problems felt interesting (I’ve worked on embedded OSes, mobile OSes, ML, large distributed systems, databases, and now AI) and like there’s always interesting products to build to help improve the world.
Should we view those who chase status as a bad thing, or look to those who assign status that is then chased? If the average person cares more about who won last night's big game than some work done to improve medication, should we really have anything to say about those who decide to optimize their lives by what society actually rewards?
I noticed this way back in grade school. Good grades were, if anything, a net negative prestige, while sports were a positive prestige. It made me wonder what the school was actually optimizing for, because the day to day rewards weren't being given to the studious. (The actual reward function was more complicated, such as good grades being a boost if one was already a sports star, but these were exceptions to the norm.)
This kind of thinking denies the humans in question any agency over their own lives. You’re essentially asking for a word government and a planned economy. Does it suck that more resources aren’t funneled into cancer research and other noble pursuits? Yes. But planned economies haven’t cured cancer, and are not likely to, despite denying their people the agency to live their lives as they choose.
I don’t think you have to go from here to planned economy straight away. There are capital gains taxes between the current level and 100% which might produce better outcomes.
People go into finance or adtech not because they have some innate drive towards making markets liquid, they go there mostly because it's more money -> higher quality of life. Moving more money into socially meaningful and beneficial fields (which is still far from a planned economy as the sibling comment noted) is not denying anyone agency.
A market economy is just as good if not better at denying "the agency to live their lives as they choose". Do you think the bum on the street or the poor family working paycheck to paycheck have more agency than someone with a decent job at a state owned enterprise and a social safety net? It's absurd.
Finance and investment banking is about resource allocation. To get the stuff like agriculture innovation etc done, you need money. You need someone to look and say, this is worth investing money in. This is far from trivial. The investment firms try to predict what technology or company is going to make something profitable. This allocation task is very important. There are many ways to fail at producing anything useful. Intent purity is not sufficient.
Of course the suspicion towards this is eternal. People always hated the traders as opposed to the farmers. But trade is crucial. And it relies on estimating what value things have and rewards correcting over the incorrect beliefs of uninformed people. This kind of information based knowledge work was always disliked by most people as it seems lazy. And for sure there are zero sum and rent seeking aspects or insider trading etc. But it's not so simple as to say that all investment and finance jobs are negative and working on farm efficiency is always better.
I don’t hate traders, I just wonder about Jeffrey Skilling graduating Harvard at the top of his class. In aggregate, is it too risky to need so many like him in finance?
I'm not convinced those are the "smartest people" as much as the people with the correct ambitions and connections in the current system.
IMO, the "smartest people" are really fucking bored and doing nothing meaningful right now. You really think "the smartest" people are people who find working on Google's ad machine enjoyable? That they are programmers or traders?
Since when has "smartest" meant seeking the highest wage? Einstein didn't look for the highest paying job he could get, he took a do-nothing job and worked on what he cared about instead.
Fermi too took jobs that allowed him to pursue his passion, rather than accumulate wealth.
Newton blew a shitload of money on a pump and dump scam and spent all his time on proto-chemistry and calculus.
Bell basically ignored his company after patenting the telephone, giving almost all of his shares of the company to his new wife, who in turn entrusted them to her father, the guy who helped Bell make the company and who was defacto in control of the company. Bell spent a good amount of time studying the new field of Heredity.
The brilliant people involved in the invention of computing as a field during WW2 were doing it because it fascinated them. The military would have been happier with simpler computing machines. Von Neumann distributed a document describing EDVAC that helped nullify patent claims of the inventors.
The internet itself runs nearly entirely on free software and volunteer work!
It's insane that people are so utterly propagandized in the US "Hyper capitalism is best" mindset that even those who think the system doesn't work still implicitly believe that the system works to put the smartest people in the top earning jobs! Why do you believe smart people are primarily motivated by money?
Maybe, just maybe, smart people don't actually align their preferences to a market system at all! Maybe their priorities aren't actually money, or fame, or power.
I ended up taking an 87% pay cut to get out of advertising specifically and tech in general (eventually it will only be a 60% pay cut once I gave enough experience in the new field). It is too bad that high pay is done by capturing value for yourself. You see this a lot in tech where open source is such a huge net productivity increase but it pays worse than other less useful things.
Don't we already harvest more food than humans could ever eat, and have a huge pharmaceutical industry? I get what you're saying but these two examples seem counterproductive imho.
Which begs the question: what would actually be a good field to apply human potential towards? I agree that finance, sales and ads are very low on that list.
I would imagine that increasing crop yields would do social good primarily via decreasing the amount of cultivated farm land, especially since we're well past Jevons paradox territory with calorie intake I imagine.
While the pharmaceutical industry is large, the marginal researcher does still seem to have a pretty positive impact from an outside view.
The most positive use of human time probably looks something like antiwar advocacy, but I don't really think that most quants have the social skills for that tbh.
I have good news and bad news for you. Good news: we've known the solution to that for more than a century, which is to reduce livestock consumption, a cause which many smart people have dedicated their lives pushing vegetarian/vegan culture and producing alternatives. Bad news: from my point of view, the masses are not going to give up meat and eggs faster with each additional alternative meat.
As a side note, for many vegetarians and vegans, “alternative meats” actually mean hundreds of different legumes (fresh, dried, milled, split, fermented…) and other delicious plant foods. They’re packed with macro and micronutrients that can replace[0] those found in meat.
Taste is a bit trickier: nothing will ever taste more like flesh than… flesh — and taste is subjective anyway. Meat substitutes can be tasty, but they’re not the same. Which brings me to this:
the masses are not going to give up meat and eggs
That’s true. At first, giving up meat just to eat “fake meat” can feel like a downgrade. But the real key to change is curiosity. There are so many ingredients and recipes to explore. Classic egg-and-milk pancakes are great — but why eat the same thing all the time when there are so many combinations of plant milks and oils to try? I used to love pig and chicken. Now my favorite staples are fried tempeh and lentils with nutritional yeast.
0: I like to joke that meat replace beans, you get the idea. Fun fact: meat is viande in French, from latin vivenda which mean "which sustains life" and used to describe any edible. I think english meat have a similar etymology from mete.
It isn’t all or nothing. The Cuban Missile Crisis should have led to war, but we stopped it. World War I never should have happened. The right answer is to acknowledge envy, greed, and laziness but find solutions to work around these problems.
>While the pharmaceutical industry is large, the marginal researcher does still seem to have a pretty positive impact from an outside view.
From this outsider's point of view it's failed to have a positive impact; people nowadays are far less healthy and happy than they were half a century ago when the pharmaceutical industry barely existed.
Life expectancy in developed nations is years higher today than 50 years ago. Pharma has contributed to that with things like new vaccines, antibiotics, antivirals, and statins.
I think energy is actually the most underserved sector, with maybe high tech manufacturing as a hidden second.
Just look at what happened when AI took off in the US and our ongoing struggle to get global warming under control - only China is taking a serious stab at this which is why they’re absorbing AI more effectively than we are.
Also semiconductor manufacturing has clearly gotten way too concentrated and there’s not enough experimentation with new designs (eg throwing more at existing DRAM designs instead of building new designs like in-RAM compute to shift the power and performance by an order of magnitude or 2 thereby easing the pressure of how much is built).
It’s been a few years since I looked deeply into it, but I think we produce enough to have everyone survive but not necessarily thrive. At the time, it came out to something like 1700 kcal per person. Even if we did have enough, the next problem is logistics of allocating that food to everyone who needs it.
A lot of food production worldwide is used by meat production, which is quite inefficient. It does generate some useful side product (manure), but also a lot of bad side product.
In some places, almost every field is dedicated to meat production.
Consuming less meat and shifting food production away from meat would be very good for the environment and instantly solve the issue of the amount of calorie produce.
But as you pointed out, this is not the actual issue. Getting food to people who need it is almost entirely a political and logistical issue at this point. War (especially civil war), natural disaster, with local power stealing international aid, etc, are mostly the biggest responsible for hunger in the 21' century.
We have the technology and logistics to accurately drop-ship huge amount of food in even the most remote places in the world, even when the local infrastructure is heavily damaged or inexistent. We cannot deal with local power decision to voluntarily starve a place.
>Consuming less meat and shifting food production away from meat would be very good for the environment and instantly solve the issue of the amount of calorie produce.
The problem with this statement is that it implies all calories are equal in terms of nutrition. Meat is very protein dense compared to most plant foods and that can be important. That’s not to say it’s impossible to live healthily on only plants, but it’s not as simple as swapping calorie sources.
Fun fact, some plant like Bulgur or Lentil are almost as calorie dense as some meat. But to my understanding, they lack “complex” protein or something ? Regardless, your don't have to cut meat entirely. The issue is that we consuming way too much of it. In many developed country, eating meat every day is very common. Eating meat once or twice a week is enough to get all the right nutrient and not having deficiency in things like B12.
They lack all the essential amino acids, but you can easily circumvent that by combining sources. People have been doing so with combinations like rice and beans for generations. But the question is whether the calories cited come from enough variety to meet those nutritional needs. Again, all calories aren’t created equal.
I don’t disagree that western societies probably eat too much meat. But that is the trend of any burgeoning middle class, and it’s doubtful it will change.
The average per capita is closer to 2,600 kcal/day. Not sure how that breaks down when normalized by the individual country population. It also doesn't include waste. In the US at least, waste is near 40%.
At the top, under FOOD, select "All food." In the country list, select "World." Above the map, click "Line." Finally, mouse over the graph to see the values. The latest value they have is for 2023 and shows 3,005.52kcal/day. Awful lot of significant figures there....
You are underestimating the importance of efficient allocation of capital and and attention. What use is discovering a way to improve harvesting efficiency if there is no money to develop it into a product or inform customers of its existence. It might as well not exist without there being a way to finance, make people aware of it, and reward the creator.
The problem with this line is that there is social value to things aside from their standalone ability to generate revenue. Essentially every publicly funded thing derives from this philosophy. In fact the social utility of a thing and its profitability probably aren’t that tightly coupled.
If you buy that (not everyone does) then it follows that an industry can be compensating beyond its social value.
That is, the value of providing market liquidity is not zero. The value of figuring out the optimal next video on YouTube is not zero. But in my opinion there is also social value in making sure poor kids can read.
it seems to me that the problem is quite the opposite. people believe that the "importance of allocation of capital" (good euphemism by the way) is WAY more important that it really is. do we need extra personalized ads in each of our machines? do we need instant financial trades and people optimizing instant transactions? We don't need a sophisticated AI to "inform" the customers.
there is a ton of things that are there simply because at some point people made money out of it, and then lobbied politicians to death to avoid regulation.
we had local, small and noche business before. and even today.
the point again is that nobody says that certain mechanism of the market can have positive effects. the point is that way overestimated. we have extremely complex procedures that cost insanely amounts of money for stuff like ads. we could have a fraction of that power and people would still know about the products they need, etc.
We don't have any reliable and scalable way of doing this allocation, though, so it's a bit like saying that all the resources are wasted being locked up in asteroids.
We do have a lot of policy levers that are tilted in favor of making money in finance, though, and we could change those levers.
- The carried interest loophole
- We could add small transaction taxes
- We could raise capital gains taxes
- We could be a little more focused on enforcing antitrust
- We could raise higher end marginal tax rates to reduce the relative attractiveness of off-scale payrate jobs
- We could provide better universal services to do the same
All of these things could shift people's interest in and ability to do work in areas of greater long-term societal importance without bringing in any form of centralized resource allocation.
I'm not sure you could alter these without significant negative effects on the other things you're trying to encourage.
It's not like capital is uninvolved in the provision of biotech, or that medical startup founders aren't also motivated by massive tax-efficient future payouts, for example.
If anything I'd think you'd want to encourage the movement of investment into riskier bets, which would generally mean _decreasing_ capital gains taxes.
>long-term societal importance without bringing in any form of centralized resource allocation.
The onus is on the biomedicine industry to demonstrate it's capable of producing anything of societal importance because so far it's largely failed to deliver. There's nothing noble or scientific about throwing good money after bad into an industry that's continuously failed to deliver.
You'll note I didn't try to specify what was of import.
We can create mechanisms that enable more people to follow their own idea of what is important instead of merely what is lucrative. Not everyone will agree with the choices other people make, and it wouldn't eliminate money as a motivating factor, it would just slightly reduce the strength of that signal relative to other potential signals such as "I feel like I'm doing something meaningful."
Honestly I think you'd be better off just making _existing_ cheaper than trying to discourage wealth seeking. The cost of living, especially housing, is a huge motivating factor to try and 'get rich first', before doing the 'meaningful work' part.
People have been trying to use AI in radiology for decades. They still can't get it to do simple tasks like detect pneumonia from an X-ray. I think you are over-estimating how potent this "intelligence" really is.
We were blown away when LLMs came on the scene, because 'whoa, man! Machine can talk like a human', but really, stupid people have been posting online for decades. They talk like humans too! Yet they don't add any value (viz shit posters and trolls).
Is your opinion that one is more worthwhile than the other. It is my opinion that it is the other way. We have a way to express this: we each make weighted votes with how valuable we think something is and how good we were at making things valuable for others (money). Then people try to do the thing that is voted for.
To better understand your thinking here, can you illustrate for me a scenario with less liquid markets because firms like JS are less efficient at making them, and the knock-on effects?
I agree, this is why I'm a big fan of enforcing workplace democracy [1] onto problematic industries like finance, media, advertising on a legislative level; these things can't be trusted with individuals, all workers should share in the company process.
Have no doubt that workers at these companies could do a better job than an out of touch executive + board team that more resemble communist dictatorships than sound business practices.
People are arguing about the role of these HFTs being a net good etc. They’re missing the point, these bright kids are trading something more profound- a sense of purpose, a higher calling or passion- to simply run adversarial arbitrage and pump their egos up with puzzles.
The thing is the same hardware does both, Deepmind should be the best example of a company that's developed both.
Also there is no such thing as 'cancer' it is '_____ cancer' which seems to be about one of a million different things. So technically you have to cure cancer a million times. Expanding our compute ability and smart algorithms to solve the medical issues are a far more scalable option than having humans work on it alone.
And also a lot of toxic technology that shouldn’t exist. I agree with parent that many brilliant minds are wasted on zero sum practices at these hedge funds, because the potential profits are so high. It’s a useful social question to ask how we can incentivize the smartest people to work on the most important problems, since naturally there’s little profit in curing obscure diseases.
but doesn't the empirical evidence reject this premise?
if the greatest minds of earth, in their wisdom, have all collectively concluded that the smartest thing for them to do is make as much money as humanly possible, then evidently the greatest calling for mankind is... to be wealthy!
and the older i get the harder it becomes to argue with such a perspective... hmm... maybe i am getting closer to wisdom? haha!
You assume that what smart people _do_ is the same as what humanity _ought to do_.
Even if every genius on Earth spent their days trying to get rich, that would show something about incentives, institutions, fear, status, and survival. It would not automatically prove that wealth is mankind's highest purpose.
Rats also optimize for calories when the maze is built that way. That does not make cheese (or whatever rats prefer) the meaning of life.
Modern capitalism often acts like the scoreboard is the game. That confusion is one of civilization's recurring clown acts.
“The smartest people pursue whatever is incentivized, therefore the current incentive structure is humanity's greatest calling.”
Yeah, no. The smartest people on earth didn’t convene and design this system. What we have now is just a fragile equilibrium we collectively stumbled into. There’s no reason to think it’s final, unless you've come to assume history ends with you...
Intelligence? Jane Street make their money by having retail’s Robinhood trades routed to them and having a back channel called “Bryce’s secret” with Terraform employees.
Well, maybe ask people that claim that HFT is bad and that it's travesty that great minds work on that (if my claims are unverifiable then it obviously follows that their claims are also unverifiable).
It's not wasted. Society can pay for the talent it wants, and they don't want to pay for this. Instead this talent helps to grow the overall wealth on in the world, letting us pay for the stuff we want.
I'm sure people (society) wants cheap food, free universal healthcare, free public transport, so why don't we have these things?
Under capitalism each of these individual systems needs to turn a profit to be deemed worthwhile instead of treating the system as a whole and taking into account the economic externalities and benefits to the entire system.
There's no such thing as free things, there's just some people paying for other people's things, and surprise surprise some people don't want to use their hard earned money to pay for other people's transport and healthcare.
And yet too much zero sum thinking leads to a crabs in a bucket mentality were the greedy get less by being greedy instead of having an educated productive society around them.
A large portion (I think it's the majority, but would be happy to be wrong) of our fellow man is a net loss to society, with some smaller percentage being a significant drain.
Giving more and more resources to those people does not make them magically more educated, productive, or congenial.
So it's not a "crabs in a bucket" mentality in that the greedy (which I assume means the wealthy here, as they're the ones funding the public system in the US specifically and the western world for the most part) are trying to keep the lower classes beneath them, it's that they are not interested in wasting their resources to no meaningful end other than increased consumption of low quality or worse goods and services.
> And yet too much zero sum thinking leads to a crabs in a bucket mentality were the greedy get less by being greedy instead of having an educated productive society around them.
These are just your biases. Take Switzerland as an example - it doesn't have any of lefty fetishes OP mentioned ("cheap food, free universal healthcare, free public transport") yet it is highly educated, productive and leaves the door open for people who want to work hard and get ahead to do so.
Heh, we have cities bigger than Switzerland. Trying to use any particular small area without averaging out human behavior is silly because the model will fail.
There are societies that voted for those things and have them. Many other (often more successful societies) react to those like "OMG commies are at it again".
As someone who has worked in the industry, I've yet to see any compelling argument that high frequency quants are making any meaningful contribution to society. Maybe on the low frequency end, but slightly higher market liquidity doesn't serve that large a social good imo.
High frequency quants almost certainly don't directly provide a massive social good, but they're one of the many facilitators enabling the smooth functioning of markets that do.
But FWIW, the comment I was replying didn't seem to be specifically critical of high frequency quants. Dismissing the entire field as something that doesn't contribute to society is beyond absurd.
The context of the comment being a Jane Street blog post is why I singled out HFT.
I think we're probably roughly in alignment w.r.t. other forms of finance, but the market liquidity gained by a marginal HFT employee almost certainly isn't worth the marginal cost imo. Even in finance, you could do a lot better by expending that human capital into optimising the structure of the markets themselves (there's lots of research on how hideously inefficient the TSE is because of its coarse tick sizes, for example; but vested interests get in the way of fixing that).
If markets were regulated to trade in coordinated 1s auctions, instead of nanosecond precision first-come-first-served matching of orders, markets would function just as well without needing a ton of what the HFT crowd does. It's a massive waste of brilliant minds.
HFT doesn't inflate or deflate any valuations. They operate at the market microstructure level and provide liquidity. HFT firms have no impact on the long-term value of assets.
HFTs can siphon away profits from the people actually doing good investing, but Not all HFT is created equal. There have been some pretty high profile instances where HFTs have increased market volatility and caused a "flash crash".
HFTs that trade at the microsecond scale probably aren't valuable to society.
That's all factually incorrect. The reason that HFT is valuable to society is exactly because it trades at the microsecond scale. That's how it provides the most liquidity.
Flash crash was transient and had no impact long term value. Neither does volatility.
I didn’t read the OP as being entirely dismissive, but rather making a point about relative impact.
You could make the case that a neurosurgeon is contributing to the field by being a full-time reviewer of a research journal; like a quant, they are providing utility by assisting in the flow of information. But I suspect there are many people like me who think they would have a bigger impact by putting on scrubs and working in an operating room.
Moving money from one pile to another is only useful when the rest of us do actual work. The mistake that the west is making is assuming moving piles of money from one place to another is the actual work.
There's that, but the market in the West was already over-saturated with HFT arbitrage. What's hot is growing markets that get a little less attention. The big Jane Street maneuver in India made a lot of noise recently. They've been "banned" for "market manipulation", but that was one of their biggest play to date.
Modern financial system is the single greatest invention in the history of man for pushing resources towards things like "crop harvesting efficiency, new medicines, etc"
My point is that it also pushes quite a bit of resources towards things that are not nearly as useful as those, so claiming it's "exactly that" is like claiming that animals in a zoo with tusks are "exactly" the walruses that they have and ignoring all of elephants in the room.
The Rockefeller and Ford foundations funded the most successful crop improvement programs. I imagine finance tried to persuade them to use that money somewhere else.
Interestingly, this is a matter of debate right now: see "Forget lung, breast or prostate cancer: why tumour naming needs to change: The conventional way of classifying metastatic cancers according to their organ of origin is denying people access to drugs that could help them" https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00216-3
A number of companies have sprung up that'll try to a tumor sample to a variety of treatments in order to figure out whether treatments from other tumor sites may work better.
My own tumors originated in my tongue; now I don't have a tongue any more (https://jakeseliger.com/2023/09/09/life-swallowing-tasting-a...) and the tumors reside in my neck and lungs. A lot of oncologists who specialize in head and neck cancers also work in lung, since there seems to be a lot of overlap between the two.
I don't know this for sure, but I think DNA profiling is changing how oncologists, and people more generally, view cancers, or at least many cancers. Decades ago, it wasn't feasible to take molecular snapshots of cancers. Now it's still not quite standard, though it should be, via companies like CARIS: https://www.carislifesciences.com/
I just wanted to say that I sympathize with many of the things you describe in your linked post. I didn't have it anywhere near as rough as you, but: I had a motorcycle accident: I've felt the strange cold of a nasal feeding tube filling with the neon blue fluid food; I lost something like 35 pounds spending a month in the ICU; I've experienced both an NG tube going in and coming out, and how weird that feels -- same for removing a chest tube: it doesn't really hurt, it just feels wrong; I've had a catheter, so I know all about how wrong that feels; and of course I know about the constipation as well.
I've felt hopeless as they dialed back the ventilator prepping to take me off it, and I've been so weak I got stuck in the bathtub.
I read your linked article, and I’m so sorry for what you went through and what you continue to live with. Two members of my immediate family were diagnosed with cancer within a month of each other. One didn’t make it as a result of just how punishing the adjuvant treatments were. She succumbed to an infection and couldn’t fight it off.
Being in the treatment rooms for both people made surgery, chemo, and radiation all feel like blunt instruments that crushed the patients. Even 3 months post treatment, my surviving family member suffers from the effects of the treatments, and likely will for up to a year we’ve been told.
I hope you get some relief and hope for your situation. Your writing is exceptional.
Cancer is cell-specific. Organs are made of different types of cells specific to that organ. Lung cancer is not the same as pancreatic cancer is not the same as breast cancer, etc. If cancer was not cell-specific, it would be much easier to synthesize treatments for.
>Organs are made of different types of cells specific to that organ.
I think I broadly agree but with the important caveat that organs frequently share cell types and therefore can share cancers specific to those cells, across organs.
They’re not organ specific, they’re disease specific. Despite all being called cancer, they’re not really the same disease and each variant might express different targets or react differently to the same treatment.
Cancer isn't one disease, any cell could potentially become cancerous and they can potentially become cancerous in different ways. A universal cancer vaccine will probably never happen, but hopefully we'll be able to have enough coverage of the more common ones such that cancer is effectively eliminated.
The mutations and vaccine are usually specific to the type of cancer, so yes one treatment won’t help a different kind of cancer. Unfortunately, of course, but that’s the way it is.
This is actually one of the more important functions needed for a free market to function. She's doing something we think is stupid and at the end of it the pot of money/influence she has will either be greatly diminished or she'll be right and get a massively larger pot for the next round. That she is doing this is a massive win for us because it is greatly in our interest for her to either prove she's awesome by enriching our lives with a much better product/service or for her to burn the piles of money she's accumulated before they are passed on to her kids (who are highly likely to be unimpressive, or have children that are unimpressive). Either we get a much better product/service or we get a much diminished time for her descendants to fail back to average, it's a win-win for society no matter which way this goes.
I don't know how much I'd agree with "much", given that's she's worth an estimated $600 million. At a paltry 5% apr, that's still $30 million a year in interest.
It's what people don't get about the excesses of capitalism/free markets. They serve a function. We get massive productivity/research/business process gains of millions of people putting their money where their mouth is everyday and playing a repeated game for more money/size/ influence from providing a better solution. That only works if people are reasonably sure they will keep the gains from their risks/hard work so we can't just steal the proceeds from them before it gives outsized clout to their more than likely idiotic descendants. Instead we need it to be reasonably easy for them to lose their money in a way that doesn't deter future risk taking of everyone else, of which this is one way.
I actually think this function is the real reason it's so bad that Rehnquist kneecapped antitrust so badly in the 70's through 90's and we have a nation of oligopolies now. The oligopolies can exercise outsized market power and stay in existence for way longer than they would otherwise, which gives outsized and long lived returns to the idiotic offspring at the expense of pricing above marginal cost for society, which does harm us on every purchase via the higher price, but really harms us through keeping idiots in excess wealth that should have gone to some smart upstart, costing us decades of that upstart making wise choices.
I once asked my first boss - worth tens of millions - why don’t you just sell your company, and retire for good? Instead of working 10-12 hours, 6-7 days a week?
He simply told me that he’d go crazy from boredom, and that the business was his life. He loved the work, his clients, his employees, everything about it.
The man was on his second heart-attack, pending divorce, but that’s what he loved doing.
He’s now in his mid 60s, and still doing the same. Some people are just made to work.
I think I may be slowly turning into this (sans the tens of millions) and I don't really have as much problem with it as a younger me would have expected. My problem is more finding work that I think actually adds value to the world and doesn't cause me burnout. Turns out if I have work that doesn't destroy my soul, I'm willing to keep doing it; it's one of the main things keeping the nihilism from creeping in.
I had a discussion with someone in similar position. He implied that at a certain point it is about succeeding and keeping score, rather than about the money.
The people who would bail out and live on a beach are probably the kind of people who wouldn't have the success to do so. (I count myself amongst them.)
I wonder if he would think of it as some people just are made to play, which in his case happens to align with what others call work...hence the tens of millions.
She is spending her own money and her rich friend's money to give her team a good salary and a chill work environment. I don't see a problem with that.
Well I suppose I’ll just head into your home, help myself then. Like I said, I enjoy free stuff.
As a radical truth seeker on a forum devoted to them (or so some have claimed anyway)…
Marisa Mayer is one of billions? What evidence can she put forward her status is not coupled to conservative politics heavily repeated by media?
Perhaps it’s all just dopamine and oxytocin addiction due to intentional propagation of conservative socio economic and political memes of the past, enjoyment, Schadenfreude, of worker deference?
As a radical truth seeker, I’m not content to accept such lazy and old social memes (it’s not 2006 anymore) as sacrosanct truth. Thats pseudoscience, living in a biological state the past we know is essential. It smells of religious conviction, banal stubbornness, laziness, and entitlement.
Will reality unzip if “this isn't the way”?
Goodhart’s law: Is “they enjoy it” a good enough measure to burn up resources on startup role-play? Is startup culture and hand wavy billionaires based upon conservation of dated (it’s not 1900s anymore) political rhetoric good enough?
As a Xennial it’s been interesting watching Boomers and GenX lose their energy for the future and replace it with demands of fealty to their past via social media.
Us radical truth seekers are not so content conserving past propaganda and success. “Commit it [conservation of past society] then to the flames…”
There are lots of people who do think that way. You never hear about them again. You only hear about the minority who do take another swing.
Also, who’s to say she doesn’t “admit it”.
She can acknowledge her fortunate circumstances while still deciding she wants to spend her future building another company which may or may not succed
I’m not as “lucky” as her, but I can’t stay “retired” for more than 9 months. I’ve tried twice. It’s not even money, financially I have more than enough to retire now, I kind of just have to be doing something that I think isn’t bullshit, and I’m not ever going to get good enough at my hobbies to pursue them full time
Hunger drives people. For some it's the hunger for financial safety to cover their needs (housing, food, etc.), for other it's the hunger for being better than your previous self, or better than your peers/competition.
Truth be told, if you're all set in life - financially independent - and don't need to produce anything, it is incredibly easy to just become another dilettante.
Actually pursuing hobbies full time takes some serious discipline, because you really don't have any commitments - and can quit whenever you want, without any consequences whatsoever.
And, thus, for the vast majority - focusing on hobbies full-time can become a chore. You rarely (if ever) hear about retired rich people that become the very best in some field they see as their hobby.
At least with work, you have clients / customers. It's much easier to tell your boss "fuck you, I quit" once you have that kind of money - than to quit on your paying clients/customers.
Also, and this is just my observation, people seem to become (intellectually) duller real quick after they retire and don't do anything specific.
It’s not just a matter of commitment with hobbies either. I like Dream Theater and I play electric guitar. But try as I might I will never even come close to John Petrucci. It’s not even physically doable, although I’ve gotten pretty decent over the years. Whereas in my professional life I _am_ at the top of the food chain if I want to play ball. I just sometimes struggle to find an interesting game to play so to speak.
ZBiotics is a really exciting biotech startup that makes a GMO probiotic that digests Acetaldehyde, a byproduct of alcohol consumption that is a large part of hangovers. Personally think they reduce the effect of drinking by about 40%.
The process is somewhat straightforward:
- Search your full name, your username, your phone number, pieces of your last 3 addresses.
- Check image search in particular
For each result:
- Google their remove me process and execute it, if they have one.
- If not, find an email contact and ask nicely. Make up some excuse
- If that doesn’t work, email a more formal GDPR right to be forgotten note if you are in EU.
- If that doesn’t work, Google has a GDPR removal process if you are in EU.
Now wait 1-2 months and do it again.
Now wait 1-2 months and do it again.
..
After about a year you should be able to reduce your surface area tremendously.
There are several businesses that claim to help with this process, including providing convenient links to those removal processes for many big entities. I cannot advise whether they are grabbing all your info too.
I like the guy, he seems like a genuine technologist / hacker. I wish him well.
None of the things he has worked on are any good so far. Objectively nobody actually uses this stuff. My definition: nobody would choose this stuff at arms length from a financial interest in pretending it is the correct technological + business choice.
Why did you use the word objectively here? It seems like people objectively do use this stuff, though you possibly don't think that they're actually getting value out of it. Ethereum likely has more users than anything either of us will ever build.
No meaningful percentage of the global population uses crypto and a large majority that do are bad actors, either in their use or their motivations for marketing it's "uses". Maybe "relatively" would have been better but the point is the same.
For a currency that is not issued by a sovereign state and purports to be useful for day to day transactions and a hedge against inflation, that's not a high bar.
It would be a high bar for a currency whose purpose is to facilitate dark or illicit transactions, though.
Unfortunately the valuations seem to have been predicated on the former use case, not the latter
I have no idea what you're talking about. I'm assuming "your" means eth, which I'm not directly talking about in my response. I'm talking about the failure of crypto adoption that's original purpose was a fast, cheap and decentralized currency - none of which has come to fruition and by the looks of it, never will.
1. This is an outdated article citing a single point in time
2. The source tweet is comparing Uniswap's volume on all x:ETH pairs against only ETHUSDT volume on centralized exchanges. [0]
3. The date of comparison is an outlier day - when FTX's "hacker" decided to move huge sums of tokens uneconomically on chain.
4. Volume across CEXs have collapsed, a sign of the ecosystem's weakness, not strength.
5. Even then, Uniswap doesn't hold a candle to Binance. ($600m volume vs $10b volume, past 24 hours on spot pairs)
6. Liquidity is horrible right now. If you try to execute a trade of reasonable size on a non-major coin you will face a lot of slippage.
[0]: The tweeter, Alex Svanevik is the founder of Nansen, a chain analytics company. It doesn't make sense that he would make such a simple mistake unless he was deliberately trying to bullpost.
Spoken with a privilege of a first-country citizen with a working banking system. I personally know dozens of people who use crypto for their main purpose: to transact. Without it, they wouldn't have been able to earn their living or have any access to their money.
I am based in Nigeria, a ‘third-world country’, I work remotely for a company domiciled in the US and get paid in Stablecoins (USDC & USDT). Crypto has been a life saver for me. Before that, one alternative was to get a USD account in a local bank & get paid via Western Union. The challenges are numerous. To setup a USD account locally takes a long time & multiple requirements. Assuming that hurdle is crossed, the more challenging issue is how restrictive Central bank policies are. In an economy with high inflation & parallel market rates for USD, there’s an incentive for the government to retain as much USD in the economy due to poor trade policies preventing $ revenues from coming in. Withdrawal limits have been reduced over the last 2 years alone, & the flexibility to make $ payments is hindered by low transaction limits with a USD card ($15 per transaction). To navigate this, I tried creating a virtual USD bank account with a local Fintech, with which to receive salaries. However these virtual accounts can only receive payments from US accounts (via ACH transfers) so can be restrictive. The most seamless solution to my problem has been to setup a crypto wallet. In minutes I receive my salary and can spend any amount, whenever I like. Plus, it makes it easier to save in USD, avoiding the local currency devaluation (The Naira has fallen 52% in the last 7 years under the current regime). So speaking as a ‘third-country citizen’, crypto provide a far more effective banking system.
I'm not questioning your experience but this is very strange to me.
I've worked with contractors based in Brazil, Turkey, and other countries likely categorized as "developing" and the payment process doesn't look any different than when I work with international contractors in places like Germany.
Many of them use Wise (formerly TransferWise) and looking at the pricing for Nigeria it looks completely reasonable - sending money has a 0.41% fee and receiving it is free. This fee includes reasonable things like a website non-crypto enthusiasts can actually use, customer support, fraud protections, etc. For countries with unstable currencies, massive inflation, etc Wise allows you to hold it in over 50 fiat currencies (including USD).
Given that I've had an interest in crypto for many years at this point I've seen online descriptions like yours so I've asked the contractors I've worked with "Why not crypto?". They all tell the same story - that services like Wise are perfectly usable and with extremely reasonable pricing all things considered. Wise even provides the sending of invoices that I (as the client) receive via e-mail and can pay in a few clicks. The most important thing to people is actually getting paid and it's a well known fact that reducing friction around payments is the best thing you can do (I've been a contractor as well).
Note this is technical/development contract work. I can't imagine people in non-technical fields getting an invoice asking for payment in crypto stablecoin and them spending the time, energy, and resources to wander through that maze to pay a contractor, service, etc instead of running their business. Frankly I'd use a different contractor and I'm very crypto literate.
Wise used to be a great option to transact in, 2-3 years ago. The main challenge with Wise however was the exchange rate used to convert USD received to the local fiat currency. In Nigeria there are two exchange rates - the first at an official rate used by banks, & the second a parallel rate used by the black market (including Bureau de Change operators).
Today if you Google the ‘official’ exchange rate for the dollar to Naira, you’ll see a ~445 Naira to 1 USD. As an individual there isn’t anywhere I can buy dollar at this rate, because it is exclusive to banks, select licensed money operators & politically connected high-net worth individuals. However money services like Wise convert my dollar at this official rate. Considering that the parallel market rate today is 745 naira to 1USD, I will be losing a huge amount of money by receiving money with Wise. The only workaround will be to get a virtual account on Wise & send USD to a local money merchant, who then exchanged at this parallel rate. But such virtual accounts aren’t accessible to people in Nigeria, due to regulation. [1] For context, the Central bank of Nigeria released a circular a while back explicitly stating Wise as a non-licensed entity.
There are other options apart from Wise. But the trade off is loss of money, as compared to what’s available on the parallel/black market.
Thank you for the detailed education of the issues specific to Nigeria! But I'm still curious - can you explain how crypto transfers aren't subject to the same issues getting to Naira, the traditional banking system, etc? Getting solid data on the adoption of crypto for real day-to-day payments in Nigeria (or anywhere) is pretty difficult.
Crypto transfers aren't subject to these issues because they aren't regulated. For instance, cards (Visa, Mastercard & Verve) can't be used to deposit on these exchanges because they'll have to be processed by a fiat operator, which usually requires a license. Because the government has banned the use of crypto, any entity caught wanting will have their accounts frozen. This also makes it really hard to deposit money into these entities by anyone. They can easily be blacklisted because they have accounts in their names. I used to work for one of such entities. I've also had my bank account frozen by the Central Bank of Nigeria for withdrawing naira that was sent from said 'blacklisted' entities.
Because these crypto exchanges are P2P based (e.g. Binance P2P), I can exchange my USDC for Naira that's deposited directly to my account. Because these are individuals, it's hard for the government to isolate bank transfers that are made for the purpose of crypto. For caution, people making such transfers tell each other not to add a description with a crypto-related word to these transactions.
Adoption for real day-to-day payments in low-volumes (like paying for groceries at a shop) is quite low, but high among high-volume merchants who import/export goods and are in dire need of USD liquidity and ease of payment across countries. Tough Central Bank policies give them an incentive to find the best rates & transact with lesser barriers. There are no official figures/solid data, because all that activity happens in informal channels (like P2P).
I don't understand though how do you explain those transaction to your tax authorities and pay taxes. Surely it can only be so long that you can get massive (by local standards) and fairly constant salary month to month and not get them interested in the source of funds?
I have family in developing countries but not Nigeria. Usually there's massive tax fraud that happens all the time regardless. Prevailing tax rates are punitive enough that nobody follows them and they're rarely enforced so there's elaborate reporting schemes that large portions of the moneyed population follow and is essentially accepted practice.
Yes, this is the case for Nigeria. Taxes mostly come from working individuals, which are deducted by the company before the net salary payment is sent. They also come from transactions. Companies are accountable to the government, but rarely individuals. Foreign companies with remote workers in Nigeria have to either pay to a USD account or pay via crypto. Crypto is untaxed because it is banned. USD in a bank account is subject to withdrawal limits & must be exchanged at the bank’s rate, which often 40-50% less than the parallel/black market rate. Crypto (USDC/USDT) is the only way to get the true Naira equivalent of the dollar. But it’s the most convenient way to receive payments & individuals get no tax-related penalties for it today.
As someone in Argentina, let me explain my situation:
As you pointed out, not many employers are willing to pay directly in crypto, that's why a lot of contractors - myself included - are willing to use platforms like Payoneer, Wise, even Paypal if there is no other option.
The missing part of the story here is how contractors in a developing country with currency controls, high inflation, poor banking infrastructure get the money -out- of those platforms. Most of the time you just cannot do it legally, so you end up "selling" your Wise/Payoneer/Paypal balance for the equivalent in the local currency. This is usually against their ToS and which can result in your account getting banned, losing access to your money (that's why it's advised to -not- leave any significant amount of money on these kind of platforms).
With crypto I also need to deal with black markets (which are always growing down here) and some business are starting to accept crypto directly (mostly tech-related busines). But, unlike these platforms, I actually have control over my money (it cannot be "confiscated" by my wallet unlike my Wise balance), fees are usually lower (ex. Payoneer results in a ~3.5% fee, Paypal ~10%, Wise ~1%, while in crypto - lets say BUSD - fees are mostly flat at around 1/2 USD at most), and market liquidity is higher (it's -a lot- easier to sell USDT/USDC/BUSD/DAI than your Paypal balance).
1. Are you actually transacting with others directly in USDC/USDT? I.e. are there shops where you actually buy things through your crypto wallet, or are you converting to USD/Naira and using that?
2. Are you self-hosting that wallet, or is it actually an account on some exchange?
Either way, I doubt that working remotely as an employee of US companies is a very common way of life in your country, so I don't think this supports the GP's point as much as it appears.
> The Naira has fallen 52% in the last 7 years under the current regime
How much has crypto grown in Nigeria? Is it possible that the migration to crypto / loss of faith in the local currency in lieu of USD is what’s actually behind the collapse vs government policies themselves?
It's usually a combination of both. When the local currency is unreliable, as a result of bad government policies, the locals will try get hold of a stronger foreign currency. They will sell the local currency to buy the foreign currency, which will contribute to the depreciation of the local currency, which in turn will make it even less attractive, prompting more people to sell, and so on so forth.
Russia doesn't have refugees, it has a tiny number of people seeking asylum after protesting against the regime. Middle class Russians fleeing conscription are not exactly comparable with people seeking refuge from Russian bombs, are they?
Ah yes here comes the privilege argument to derail legitimate discourse. You love to see it.
Your first approach should be a Wise multi-currency account.
Where Wise doesn't work the only thing that makes any sense are stablecoins from a proper issuer, like USDC (definitely not USDT). These are of course issued and controlled by centralized entities, making them antithetical to the very principles of crypto. They may as well be private scrip CBDCs.
Any decentralized/floating-rate coins are utter garbage for folks without access to meaningful banking systems in so-called third-world countries due to the volatility, embedded systemic leverage, high fees and potential long transaction times. These folks are the least able to stomach the 90% drawdowns (and 100% rug-pulls) we've seen market-wide. Frankly, I think the Turkish Lira has outperformed every major cryptocurrency for the last year.
What these people need are actual privacy-preserving CBDCs, of which there are exactly zero in the market.
Please put away the faux privilege defense. Folks of any level of privilege are able to comment meaningfully on the fitness of a technical system for purpose. Allow their arguments to stand on their own merits.
Although I agree that the expression that OP made maybe wasn't the best, they do have a point.
> Your first approach should be a Wise multi-currency account.
Excellent example; Wise is not available for account setup in the vast majority of developing countries, so if that's your solution it's already a failure. But why? For the most part it seems to come down to banking and currency regulations, which is exactly what cryptocurrency (at least Bitcoin) was designed to circumvent. I'm not even talking about countries that are essentially kleptocracies and have moulded their regulations to fit that structure, or remittances that have become such a large industry they practically power the GDP of a number of extremely poor countries.
> Any decentralized/floating-rate coins are utter garbage for folks without access to meaningful banking systems in so-called third-world countries due to the volatility, embedded systemic leverage, high fees and potential long transaction times.
I'm not sure this argument still holds with all the defi options today, but if this is an improvement on the status quo I guarantee people in third world countries will use it in spite of its deficiencies. A central bank that throttles access to alternative currency options will practically shut down the use of existing banking infrastructure, whether it's good or not.
> Wise is not available for account setup in the vast majority of developing countries, so if that's your solution it's already a failure.
Do you have a source for this? The closest thing I can find is this list of countries where it isn't allowed [0], which includes several developing countries but certainly not the vast majority of them.
Personal experience attempting to open an account with them while living in a developing country. Granted, this was about 5 years ago so the situation may have changed since then.
> Wise is not available for account setup in the vast majority of developing countries, so if that's your solution it's already a failure.
I was ranking options from worst to best. Best would be something like Wise. Second-best would be a stable coin from an issuer that isn't an outright fraud. And last would be any floating-rate coin.
Last year Bitcoin literally hit transaction fees of 20% of the GDP per capita of the worst-off countries and then fell 75% in value. I wouldn't wish a system like that on my worst enemies let alone of people I claim to be trying to help. It was massively outperformed by the Lira. I can't even find one that wasn't outperformed by the Lira. It may have been designed to meet this need but it utterly failed by any measure.
USDC is a strictly better option. And better than that would be a USDC like system that preserves privacy issued by a central bank.
> I'm not sure this argument still holds with all the defi options today.
Literally 10% of the entire TVL of DeFi was lost last year to hacks and shows somehow no sign of slowing down.
The real privilege is believing that poor folks are as risk tolerant as you are in a first-world country and that this is somehow a better solution than a nice home-grown payment network like M-PESA.
It’s like a cocaine-powered ruined fresco of the financial system.
I thought ICOs had a chance to help small projects but unfortunately they became the worst of crypto. I don't blame the technology though. It's the "investors/ponzi hungers" that blew it.
It's inseparable from the technology. The technology is about issuing and transferring, and exchanging virtual tokens. This is all it does. And what can you do with virtual tokens? Not much, other than trying to sell them for money. I think Ponzis will always be one of the main use cases, if not the main use case.
fwiw, I use USDC transfers on Ethereum in preference over wire transfers (which for me seem to require a physical bank visit to clear) or Zelle (which has very low max limit per day).
I actually don't know of any robust alternatives in the US.
Playing with new technology and research is an important thing, but you have to be open that you are doing that and don’t pretend you are developing a usable product.
This is interesting, but not great Japan advice. I just went and had a blast and did the opposite of his advice. I think people are different and want different things and don't feel bad if you just want to see the standard Japan checklist. His talk of everyone being surly..you know what, be respectful, everyone in Japan is so polite and nice that you will be happy with the level of service everywhere.
I've been many times and there is a time to venture out and there is a time to enjoy what everyone enjoys and both are fine.
Yeah, I have spent a year in Japan and visited most prefectures and disagree with the article. Of course you should get off the beaten path, but if you avoid it like the article recommends, you will have a much worse time.
Additionally, the advice to visit Gifu is terrible. I spent a week in and around Gifu-shi per Patrick's advice years ago and, while the area is charming as the article states, it is not somewhere you should visit before seeing a dozen other places.
Gifu is charming, but I don’t get this either. I had a friend there, so my experience is different, a good place to eat, hang out, not really a tourist place even with the castle (and you could see a better one in Osaka).
It reminded me of Milan: a lovely place to live, but a pointless place to visit as a tourist. And I'm at least a CEFR B1 in the language - it would be an atrocious place to visit if you have no Japanese. No clue why the article recommends it (except maybe as an attempt to establish credibility).
The founders are done with each other and long gone. It's just a financial entity maximizing profit. It's amazing to watch the full circle of Google's brilliant birth to slow plateau.
Can you imagine human potential if it was somehow applied to crop harvesting efficiency, new medicines, etc?
Not everything has to be perfectly efficient but it just saddens me to see all these great minds doing what, adversarially harvesting margin from the works of others?
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