Probably a bit of both. Berkshire's size means he was limited to the largest companies which are pretty well analysed.
During that period he did some different things which some of his personal money like buying stock in Dae Han Flour Mills, a Korean flour miller that was like 2 times earnings in 2003 but was probably too small a position to make sense for Berkshire. (https://www.netnethunter.com/warren-buffett-cheap-stock-pick...)
But you can look at trends in other comparable states compared to California both before and after CA outlawed AA at public California universities by referendum.
That includes government-run utilities, like LADWP, Silicon Valley Power, and SMUD, which have much lower rates than private utilities (And, no, the rate difference is not made up by taxpayer subsidies. They’re just run more efficiently).
Thanks for the context, I didn't realize the supervisor sits in the passenger seat in Austin. They do have a kill switch / emergency brake, though:
> For months, Tesla’s robotaxis in Austin and San Francisco have included safety monitors with access to a kill switch in case of emergency — a fallback that Waymo currently doesn’t need for its commercial robotaxi service. The safety monitor sits in the passenger seat in Austin and in the driver seat in San Francisco
Waymo absolutely has a remote kill switch and remote human monitors. If anything Tesla is being the responsible party here by having a real human in the car.
Fun post. I'd be interested to know: How many consecutive Truth Booths (or: how many consecutive Match Ups) are needed to narrow down the 10! possibilities to a single one?
Discussing "events" (ie, Truth Booth or Match Up) together muddles the analysis a bit.
I agree with Medea above that a Truth Booth should give at most 1 bit of information.
Based on my research, MUs perform better than TBs. For my simulated information theories, the MUs gained ~2 bits of information on average vs ~1.1 for TBs.
So if only MUs, we're talking around 10 events - meaning you could get enough information on MUs alone to win the game! Conversely, it would take about 20 events to do this just for TBs.
It's not super obvious from the graphs, but you can just about notice that the purple dots drop a bit lower than the pink ones!
So, for 10 pairs, 45 guesses (9 + 8 + 7 + 6 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 1) in the worst case, and roughly half that on average?
It's interesting how close 22.5 is to the 21.8 bits of entropy for 10!, and that has me wondering how often you would win if you followed this strategy with 18 truth booths followed by one match up (to maintain the same total number of queries).
Simulation suggests about 24% chance of winning with that strategy, with 100k samples. (I simplified each run to "shuffle [0..n), find index of 0".)
Agreed. There's an argument elsewhere about how a truth booth can possibly have an expected return of more than 1 bit of information, but in reality most of the time it's going to give you way less than that.
My understanding is that this non-reciprocity is why international law often feels so permissive of seemingly bad actions. It generally aims to forbid only strategies that are the highly destructive and non-effective at winning wars. The idea is that such actions are not necessary in warfare in any circumstance, rather than a coordinated and mutual choice to leave effective strategies on the proverbial table.
This non-reciprocity is also why many such laws come with large conditional statements. For example, hospitals are typically illegal targets. However, you cannot label a military outpost a hospital as a loophole. There is a gray area in between, where the law is generally more permissive than a layperson might expect.
It is unclear if these laws accomplish this goal in all circumstances. A smaller, modern army attempting to hide might not be able to find non-civilian concealment (e.g., the jungle in the Vietnam war), and there is probably a conversation about the (unfortunate) effectiveness of inflecting civilian damage on an enemy's will to fight and economic output. However, the above is my best understanding of what international law sets out to do.
Disclaimer: I asked AI to evaluate the above comment before posting, and it made the following (paraphrased) criticisms that you might want to consider:
- The primary purpose of IHL (international humanitarian law) is to distinguish civilian from military, not to only ban what doesn't work. Hence, the banning of chemical weapons and landmines.
- The hospital example is better framed as a requirement to distinguish between a civilian hospital and a military target
- Non-reciprocity has the advantage of being simpler to obey (the legal analysis does not depend on the enemy's past actions)
I wonder how much is due to the market becoming more efficient, vs Berkshire's size / market impact?
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