They own the best models and will probably keep owning the best models for a while. They have much more compute now and more data to keep improving their models on many tasks. Open source won't close the gap in 6 months. They are also trying to block other companies from distilling their models [0].
I need to check benchmarks on the models, I wonder what the benchmarks are saying in terms of how closely models tracking these frontiers. —on my mobile at the moment
When it downs compute power I assume you are referring to power to training and interference. Then is it more about training gap will get wider and wider ? Is that the assumption, I know there limited GPUs etc. But I’m having hard time to believe to the idea of China cannot catch up. Even if the gap is 12 months I’m struggling to see what that means in practice? Is that military advantage, economical, intelligence? It still doesn’t explain and whatever the advantage is, aren’t we supposed to see that advantage today? If so, where is it? What’s the massive advantage of USA because of OpenAI and Anthropic?
Pi is my preferred coding agent and I'm happy it lands in good hands. At this point the only reason to use CC is access to Opus. I think open source will end up winning the coding agents race among developers at least. We just need a 30B size model with Opus like capabilities for coding. Frontier labs will dominate the Desktop / Web.
I highly recommend everyone to use Pi - it's simpler and better harness. The only tricky part is that moving forward you cannot use the Claude subscription to access Opus. But for many tasks there are enough alternatives.
I really started to like Pi. That's unfortunate that I won't be able to use it with Opus (way too expensive without a subscription). I'm optimistic that open source coding models will be able to keep up. AI is too important, we're shooting ourselves in the foot if we don't adopt open source tools and models. The more adoption the better it will become.
This is a surprising take to me! Would love to learn more about what you mean. I feel like the problems they solve seem so direct to me. For example: RLMs are an approach to long context problems. Not every problem is a good fit for RLMs for sure, but I can see some problems where I imagine it would work well!
That's going to happen in all of big tech (already happening at Amazon and Microsoft). These companies have too many employees. It was never really justified and with AI even more so. I've been in big tech and directors often tell everyone to hire when they can rather when they need. For example, if they know a hiring freeze is coming, they will try to hire as many people as they can before it happens. It's rare to find people in big tech where their incentives align with the company. (and the blame is not always on the people themselves)
As for Meta, I give Mark credit for trying, even if he failed so far with all the VR stuff. The main disappointment is about Llama cause it's clearly an execution problem. With Meta's investments in AI throughout the years, not being able to compete with Anthropic and OpenAI is a big failure.
Israel and the US completely control their airspace and Iran's entire navy got demolished. I think the US prefers not to got too far as they prefer to keep the negotiation talks open. According to reports they asked Israel not to target energy for example.
> Israel and the US completely control their airspace
Maybe the soldiers sending shaheds and missiles hitting other countries every day haven't gotten the memo? Did somebody forget to put a cover sheet on it?
Less people visit the US because it's do damn expensive. That's the biggest reason for most people. Most people don't have any principles, they go where they can afford. Last year I was in NYC and Miami beach and was shocked how expensive everything was. (I know these are expensive places but that's where most tourists go - they don't visit Kansas)
Those people didn't already come to the USA for starters, NYC has been crazily expensive for years.
There are many reasons people might have, none are good. There is for instance also a risk factor of being harassed and detained by ICE. Cruelty and incompetence are a feature of authoritarian governance, not a coincidence. So anyone going there takes a kind of risk. As has been shown, even Europeans aren't safe from the whimsical paramilitary.
EDIT: I don't think that tourism is a big factor, but as I said elsewhere, it could well be the proverbial canary in the coal mine.
Openai is just playing catchup at this point, they completely lost thier way in my view.
Anthropic on the other hand is very capable and given the success of claude code and cowork, I think they will maintain their lead across knowledge work for a long time just by having the best data to keep improving their models and everything around. It's also the hottest tech conpany rn, like Google were back in the day.
If I need to bet on two companies that will win the AI race in the west, it's Anthropic and Google. Google on the consumer side mostly and Anthropic in enterprise. OpenAI will probably IPO soon to shift the risk to the public.
If anthropic continues getting their foot in the enterprise door then maybe they can tap into enterprise cloud spending. If Athropic can come up with services and things (db, dns, networking, webservers, etc) that claudecode will then prefer then maybe they become a cloud provider. To me, and I am no business expert btw, that could be a path to sustainable financials.
Edit: one thing I didn’t think about is Anthropic more or less runs at the pleasure of AWS. Of Amazon sees Anthropic as a threat to AWS then it could be lights out.
Yes, they depend on AWS for compute and Amazon also owns a big chunk of Anthropic (it used to be close to 30%, probably less now with the recent raises). I think it's a good partnership since for the most part they focus on different things and I don't see Anthropic going after AWS - they are an AI company first and foremost. Amazon has their own AI stuff for enterprise but no one uses it so I don't think they take it seriously. They know they cannot compete here.
I think that OpenAI and Microsoft is a more challenging partnership with much more overlap.
[0] https://www.anthropic.com/news/detecting-and-preventing-dist...
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