I could have skipped reading all these stupid comments!

You see, it works!

I'm reluctantly starting to feel grateful that I went camping right over the window that Fable was out.

Healthcare is one place that gives me pause when considering going back into business for myself and my family while living in the US.

I guess it depends greatly on where one lives etc. This is a concern I've heard from all my friends in the States.

This is definitely a concern that needs to be addressed if we want to see more small businesses again. It's a big risk not having health insurance.

I think a hearty fuck off is warranted for responses like this. What the shit do you base the converse off? Pretend there's no corruption and there won't be any??

Of course not, if there's evidence of corruption then those involved should be rooted out and prosecuted to the full extent of the law.

What I'm saying is that if there's no evidence of corruption, then simply assuming corruption will harm your cause because it will make it seem like political activism is futile in the face of supposedly hidden corruption.

> Pretend there's no corruption and there won't be any??

If you look at that person's responses to others in this thread, that is exactly what they are doing. I do hope they have proper health and safety training for moving the goalposts so much.

I looked at the study and it appears that it's 25 mg of synthetic psilocybin. So assuming that's equivalent to 100% psilocybin and mushrooms average around .6% dry then it would be like 4g dry mushrooms.

Imagine the calamity in your kitchen as you rush to take care of the fire right when the mega subwoofer machine starts on top of your smoke alarm. Do they sell an infrasound heart attack machine too?

I mean - just take a look at all this speculative trading action around the Iran war. Trump is all about "his friends" presumably that means that many of them could get a heads up.

If you're talking about nuclear war, I don't think you could expect Polymarket to pay out in the aftermath. So anyone betting on one would be pretty dumb.

But betting against one could pay off?

Betting against dumb people is often a good strategy.

You can currently bet on Jesus returning before 2027, which means they would also have a hard time paying you, and 4% are betting on yes.

i have a hard time fathoming why anyone would bet yes. if they’re right isn’t their money irrelevant anyway?

One factor: There's a limit on shorting, due to discounting. Suppose you're 100% convinced that Jesus does not return by 2027, so you want to buy the "No" trading at 96 cents. But you only get your 1$ back in 2028, when the bet resolves. You're not going to pay more than 96 cents for that if you can instead put them in risk free treasuries for the same paltry return.

Thus, the 4% yes are not necessarily people actively pushing back against "No", but rather an artefact of discounting. To alleviate that (and make bets near the extremes track implied probabilities more closely), the cost of making a bet should not be the currently traded probability (plus a spread), but the currently traded probability times the discount factor to resolution time. (This gets tricky if resolution time is probabilistic, of course.)

Yep, not much profit over long time horizons in correcting a relatively small number of people who are either delusional enough to believe in second comings or think it's a fun bet

To add to that, even if there's zero probability of an actual Second Coming, there's nonzero risk whatever oracle a betting market uses gets hijacked by Second Coming believers who resolve some new Jesus.AI or declaration by a cult leader as representing the authentic return of the Biblical Jesus, plus risks of exchanges defaulting on all bets or your winnings being locked up for gambling-restriction related reasons. For related reasons, you could earn money betting on Trump winning the most votes in 2020 after they'd been counted.

There’s a really good analysis here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LBC2TnHK8cZAimdWF/will-jesus...

> The Yes people are betting that, later this year, their counterparties (the No betters) will want cash (to bet on other markets), and so will sell out of their No positions at a higher price.

I think that GP is saying that recent betting market developments provide evidence that Trump or someone high up in the administration is tipping off others. Therefore, one might think that the 'in' crowd would be tipped off about an apocalyptic event, which would trigger this software. I don't think that GP was saying anything about betting on an apocalyptic event.

That's completely right, thanks for the help clarifying!

I had everything set as CC until I noticed a photo of my very pregnant wife was getting many more views then anything else and I found it cited in a paper on training AI. That was somehow less endearing then someone getting a good use out of my images (which also happened at least once with one of my images)