I'm generally against long term punishments for crimes like this, but operating a dangerous machine like a car is a serious matter. A breathalyzer is a reasonable compromise compared to just taking away your license, right?
I don't think most people realize just how few people in the US obey license suspensions. Studies show the vast majority of people simply keep driving anyway.
Men's fashion is a little boring, but there's a lot you can play with in terms of fabric and accessories within it anyway. Men's wear blogs are kinda interesting
I don't think this is true, but you won't be able to just grab a shirt off the rack and rock it. Look at Penn Jillette when he was larger, as an example. He was always dressed to the nines. He also strategically incorporated vests into his wardrobe too.
Depending on your shape, a simple undershirt might be slimming enough, or adding shirt stays or shirt garters might help. Worst case you will have to get it tailored. A tshirt is obviously cheaper and easier though, but that signals something.
When I was a fair bit heavier though very active, off the rack shirts didn’t really fit me very well. Tall upper body and very broad shoulders from sports didn’t help. These days I seem much closer to just being able to buy stuff. Bought a new blazer last year and it didn’t need any tailoring which never used to be the case. And shirts work well enough.
I was wondering about the year. Are schools still doing online course work and exams now? I would think ai concerns would drive even more in person oral test / notebook testing stuff?
It also seems like skills with particular tech (prompt engineering, harnesses, mixture of experts set ups) doesn't always necessarily pay off when there's a sea change. Hard to predict what you'll want in a few years anyway, right?
> (prompt engineering, harnesses, mixture of experts set ups)
Prompt engineering as a specific skill got blown out of proportion on LinkedIn and podcasts. The core idea that you need to write decent prompts if you want decent output is true, but the idea that it was an expert-level skill that only some people could master was always a lie. Most of it is common sense about having to put your content into the prompt and not expecting the LLM to read your mind.
Harnesses isn’t really a skill you learn. It’s how you get th LLM to interact with something. It’s also not as hard as the LinkedIn posts imply.
Mixture of Experts isn’t a skill you learn at all. It’s a model architecture, not something you do. At most it’s worth understanding if you’re picking models to run on your own hardware but for everything else you don’t even need to think about this phrase.
I think all of this influencer and podcast hype is giving the wrong impression about how hard and complicated LLMs are. The people doing the best with them aren’t studying all of these “skills”, they’re just using the tools and learning what they’re capable of.
In my experience (and this may be confirmation bias on my part), casting a wide net and trying out new tech, while you maintain depth in the area relevant at the time, makes you ready for what's coming, even when you don't know what that may be.
Curiosity is good and helps with your personal development, for sure.
OTOH, tfa specifically said:
> I feel the same way about the current crop of AI tools. I've tried a bunch of them. Some are good. Most are a bit shit. Few are useful to me as they are now. I'm utterly content to wait until their hype has been realised.
So, it's not like he's being deliberate ignorant, rather simply deliberately slow-walking his journey.
Past the sea change: half the reason those prompt and harness solutions seem to work are LLM-lies, the testing is gassing you about how it works and the efficacy, defaulting to ‘yes’.
If you test specific features of those solutions over time you see very inconsistent results, lots of lies, and seemingly stable solutions that one-shot well but suddenly experience behaviour changes due to tweaks on the backend. Tuesdays awesome agent stack that finally works is loading totally different on Thursday, and debugging is “oh, sorry, it’s better now” even when it isn’t. Compression, lies, and external hosting are a bad combo.
Sometimes I imagine a world where computers executed programs the same way each time. You could write some code once and run it a whole calendar month later with a predictable outcome. What a dream, we can hope I guess.
People are doing toy projects and praising them, while some are testing them in real world situations and not findings them that useful. But the former is labelling the latter as luddites and telling them they will be left behind.
As someone on the intersection of both (I've built a lot of vibe coded toy projects and lead a vibe coding initiative at work), they're both right and both wrong.
For a single dev team, vibe coding is great. Write specs, write plans, write code. I know what the project wants and needs because I'm the target market.
At work, I haven't written more than a few lines of code since December. But I work with other people vibe coding this same project. Lots of changing requirements and rapid iteration. Lots of mistakes were made by everyone involved. Lots of tech debt. Sure, we built something in 2 mos that would have otherwise taken us 6 mos, but now I'm fixing the mess that we caused.
I think the critical difference is the attitude towards our situation. My boss said to fix the AI harness so we can vibe code more confidently and freely. But other bosses might cut their losses and ban vibe coding. Who's right? I dunno. In both cases I'd just do what my boss wants me to do. But it's not that I don't want to be left behind. I don't want to lose my job. There's a difference.
All of these occulted skills, that we literally can't explain why they work are akin to gamblers superstitions. If I write something this way, it works. Its like a gambler who think they order in which the push the buttons on the slot machine makes a difference.
Kind of weird tools also incorporate addictive gambling game's UX design. They're literally allowing you to multiply your output: 3x, 4x, 5x (run it 5 times for a better shot at a working prompt). You're being played by billionaires who are selling you a slot machine as a thinking machine.
> All of these occulted skills, that we literally can't explain why they work are akin to gamblers superstitions.
Yes, it's hard to see how, at this moment in time, "Anybody can write code with an LLM" is so different from "Anybody can make money in the stock market."
The underlying mechanisms are completely different, of course, and the putative goal of the LLM purveyors is to make it where anybody really can write code with an LLM.
I'm typically a nay-sayer and a perfectionist, but many not-so-great things become and stay popular, and this may fall into that category.
> Kind of weird tools also incorporate addictive gambling game's UX design.
It's unclear it started out this way, but since it's obviously going this way, it is certainly prudent to ask if some of this is by design. It would presumably be more worrisome if there were only a single vendor, but even with multiple vendors, it might be lucrative for them to design things so that "true insider knowledge" of how to make good prompts is a sought-after skill.
Why? Because all the folks involved have created a technology in search for a problem to solve. That never, ever works. Steve Jobs of all people left this piece of wisdom behind. Its amazing how few actually apply it.
The internet was never this - its origins go back to the need to able to transmit data - darpa. And this is what we still do now...
The only thing worse than the overuse of AIs is the ever present handwringing and finger-pointing of people who wrongly believe they are infallible AI detectors.
Even two or three years ago I had ideas for projects but I could see the models were not ergonomic for my uses. I decided to wait for better models and sure enough the agentic models showed up which are much easier to use.
Next thing I'm waiting on is building a new server for a powerful locally hosted LLM in 5 years. No need to go through the headaches and cost of doing it now with models that may not be powerful enough.
I don't personally like their government but at this point they certainly have the appearance of long term social and political stability. More than most western countries for the time being.
The only real difference between Obama's foreign adventures in Libya and Trump's in Iran was that Obama lied to the security council to get their approval first.
Trump isnt all that different in character to previous administrations he just takes bigger risks and doesnt bother with the mask.
The person I was replying to was talking about China's own long-term social and political stability, not their foreign policy. If you're suggesting that Obama's boondoggle in Libya was the catalyst that led to Hillary Clinton's loss in 2016 and Trump's first presidency, that's intriguing speculation. But I don't think his foreign policy is relevant to the overall topic since it was largely milquetoast for the American public at the time, and certainly didn't cause any immediate domestic instability like we're seeing with Trump.
I've been hearing that since the 1990's when it first started to become apparent that their economy was on track to overtake the rest of the world within a few decades.
It hasn't happened yet. Is there something you perceive as especially problematic now, as opposed to the last 30 years?
I've never once heard it from somebody who correctly anticipated China's rise though. The imminent collapse story just quietly changes every 5 years or so.
If the US has an imperial rival one thing you can almost guarantee is that the predictions of economic collapse will be as frequent as they are absurdly overblown and as always, This Time It's Different.
> the one child policy has backed them into a corner
A policy that ended a decade ago, and was only ever marginally successful (even at the height of the restrictions their birth rate was nearer 1.4 than 1.0)
The one child policy was only for cities anyway. Agricultural areas were permitted, even encouraged, to have more children. There were other exceptions, like twins (obviously), if the first baby was disabled, etc. Later on, couples were allowed two children if both parents came from single-child families.
Totalitarianism aside, I'm not sure about the stability either. Personally I suspect Xi Jinping's reign will end with some kind of bang, either an economic one or something relating to invading Taiwan.
Taiwan's biggest problem is that the average age is currently ~45 and in 15 years it will be ~55. It's going to be hard to keep the economy going once half the country's retired.
Yes obviously. We would erase President Xi and his family as well. What are they going to do, cross the Pacific? Our total willingness to do is unconditional.
> Totalitarianism aside, I'm not sure about the stability either. Personally I suspect Xi Jinping's reign will end with some kind of bang, either an economic one or something relating to
OpenTTD started from the ip they now own, and it's possible Atari could try and prove that in court. I don't know if they would win, but why spend the legal fees here?
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