Based on the list of businesses at the top, the stock market seems like it rewards profit margin and profits, by businesses that sell meaningful products and services.
Can you provide an example of any of the businesses on that are on that list due to "mass stupidity"? They all seem to operate factories, employ many highly qualified people, and make a material difference in many or even most people's lives around the world.
Meanwhile, SNAP has returned -14.98% per year to its shareholders since it IPO'd (Jun 3 2017), and at an $8.27B market cap, it makes up a negligible portion of any broad market index fund, so not sure how SNAP's shareholders have been rewarded by mass stupidity, especially given that the founders still own half of the business. They would have been far better off liquidating their shares and investing in SP500.
Tesla is a great example. It’s 30% retail, 25% elon and insiders, and the remainder institutional, mostly index funds.
The investment thesis for Tesla is absurd. They built the market cap on hype and it got big enough that it remains a force. It’s a flailing company, kept afloat by bullshit.
The bigger issue is the death of small cap. Massive venture, sovereign wealth and PE funds don’t need the public market capital anymore, so they harvest the vslue and spit out the company late in the value cycle.
Snap, cool as it is, is a social media loser. The investors cashed out their shares to the public, who took the loss.
> The investment thesis for Tesla is absurd. They built the market cap on hype and it got big enough that it remains a force. It’s a flailing company, kept afloat by bullshit.
Maybe, or maybe they are one of the few businesses people want to bet on to be able to create new streams of revenue. Intel used to be big, and now it isn’t. It being big didn’t help stop its demise.
> The investors cashed out their shares to the public, who took the loss.
They didn’t. The biggest investors, the founders, still have almost 50% of the shares. Also, SNAP peaked at $131B in September 2021, 2 years after SNAP went public at $27B.
Would you have written then that “The investors cashed out their shares to the public, who took the loss”?
Of course not. Because index fund investors did not cause it to go to $131B, and they didn’t cause it to go to $6B.
The fact that founders still own 50% of the shares doesn't mean that they didn't sold some of ones they had. Also Snap gives very generous stock options to their C-team, meaning that they can sell overtime while keeping their large stash.
> so they harvest the vslue and spit out the company late in the value cycle.
So SNAP executives IPO’d at $27B, and over the next 4 years, the market cap increased to $131B, which anyone in the public could have benefited from.
Yet now you are saying SNAP execs are wrong for selling their equity over time?
It doesn’t seem like there is any winning here for SNAP’s executives, even though they gave the public the ability to quadruple their money in 4 years. What more can you ask for?
you wrote "can you provide an example" and I provided an example.
If you wanted to say "I think the market mostly does this, with large caveats" then we're in agreement.
Sorry, I forgot how I phrased that. Although I disagree that Tesla’s sustained market cap over many years is what it is due to the market rewarding mass stupidity.
The company has recently successfully executed at making and selling a new type of product, so it is not unreasonable for investors to bet on further advancements.
Or maybe they think the leader is just sufficiently willing to be or adept at being corrupt that they will also benefit from his shenanigans.
Focus on making products/services for people that actually do have money to spend then.
A dimension people hate looking at is credit is far too easy in the US, which means too many companies are heavily optimized for extracting that money from people that didn’t really earn it in the first place. This means a lot of the smartest workers are preoccupied on the wrong things instead of helping advance society.
Careful there. You are not wrong, but you are not really correct either. Credit is a tool. Many people are using credit wrong and getting away with it because it is too easy. However that doesn't mean credit is a bad tool, just that it isn't used correctly.
Credit is a great tool if you get the value of the thing while you are paying for it. Paying for a car on credit (including insurance, taxes, fuel, maintenance...) is a great idea if you get the car payment worth of value (including what it does for your ego - if you are honest that is why you have it) from having a car every month , paying for a car on credit that you don't get the payments worth of value from is a waste. Similar for a house - I plan to live in this house for the next 10+ years, so I shouldn't pay for it all up front.
Most things though don't give value over time worth their payment. I don't get a payments worth of value from having gone on vacation a few months ago, so I should have paid for that up front (which I did but many do not). I like musical instruments, but I can't be sure to get $100/month of value out of my fumbling playing (or having them for my ego) so I won't buy them on credit.
You can't take it with you, so no sense in dieing with a mattress full of cash (unless that really is worth it to you). You should have some rainy day savings. Most things in life get value today only and should be paid for today.
Our money laundering supports freedom, while theirs supports tyranny etc.
I love the whole “unexplained wealth” concept the UK developed, curiously enough after Abramovich had been running around buying Chelsea etc. If you are friend to MI6 this week you are allowed to do anything, but if you get on their wrong side you will be Berezhovskied.
> Most AML courses Ive done have emphisized that the people behind high level money laundering can be too dangerous to take down
This is how they deliberately miss the point. They are not taken down not because they are dangerous but because they align with us, and will buy tat from our buddies in Mayfair and Knightsbridge at inflated prices with some of the proceeds.
British high society is completely rotten by this stuff. They are still amazed that Al Fayed was’t nearly as grimy as many had assumed.
At some point people are going to start asking awkward questions going all the way back to the PayPal mafia and everything that has subsequently happened. Thiel landing on the steering committee of the Bilderberg Group just looks too ridiculous, but is a thing, and now this guy goes off ranting about the Antichrist?
I am actually sympathetic to much of what Thiel has done, but the current arc makes the supposed Howard Hughes oddities look positively reasonable.
This whole episode is a charade to do exactly that while claiming they are morally superior to China because the UK does it “for the children” while China does it because they are just evil authoritarians.
It's depressingly true; it seems the UK really heading quickly towards a Great Firewall, they've been looking to control VPN use [1] and the top most read article on BBC News right now is yet another public sector cover up of children being sexually abused. [2]
No, I think it is you who is confused. The GP's point is that the BBC article isn't accurate or honest. You seem to have assumed the information in the link was accurate when the proof the GP implied was that the link isn't accurate.
Often significant improvements to every aspect of a system that interacts with a database can be made by proper design of the primary keys, instead of the generic id way too many people jump to.
The key difficulty is identifying what these are is far from obvious upfront, and so often an index appears adjacent to a table that represents what the table should have been in the first place.
I guess that might be true also, to some extent. I guess most of the times I've seen something "messy" in software design, it's almost always about domain code being made overly complicated compared to what it has to do, and almost never about "how does this domain data gets written/read to/from a database", although it's very common. Although of course storage/persistence isn't non-essential, just less common problem than the typical design/architecture spaghetti I encounter.
I'm a firm believer in always using an auto-generated surrogate key for the PK because domain PKs always eventually become a pain point. The problem is that doing so does real damage to the ergonomics of the DB.
This is why I fundamentally find SQL too conservative and outdated. There are obvious patterns for cross-cutting concerns that would mitigate things like this but enterprise SQL products like Oracle and MS are awful at providing ways to do these reusable cross-cutting concerns consistently.
The market simply doesn’t have enough people actively investing because it rewards mass stupidity over generating meaningful returns.
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